Home CONFLICT CRIME Procedure 769 – Witness to an Execution
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Inciting Incident: — News coverage announces Robert Alton Harris will be California’s first execution in 25 years, while victims’ relatives explain why they intend to witness it. 00:08:38 Act I Break: — After learning his execution date, Harris asks cousin and spiritual adviser Leon Harris to witness it. Leon immediately agrees, committing intimate family members to the approaching confrontation. 00:14:24 Act II Midpoint: — With Harris strapped in and the machinery begun, a ringing phone brings another stay. Relief for Harris’s supporters collides with witnesses’ shock and journalists’ thwarted expectation. 00:48:35 Act II Break: — A fax declares, “There shall be no further stays.” Officials rapidly restart the execution process, and witnesses are rushed back to the chamber knowing the killing is now inevitable. 00:54:04 Climax: — Cyanide is released. Witnesses describe Harris’s visible suffering differently: as retribution, unbearable human pain, or a shared loss of innocence; one group prays for his soul. 01:00:02
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Procedure 769 – Witness to an Execution

Short summary
The central question

What are the moral and emotional ramifications of witnessing an execution, and how do different individuals justify their presence at such an event?

Explore the emotional impact of witnessing Robert Alton Harris' execution.

Procedure 769 – Witness to an Execution follows the tense, somber lead-up to the execution of Robert Alton Harris, convicted of murdering two teenage boys in 1978, and asks what it means to be present for a state-sanctioned death. Through interviews and firsthand testimonies, the film brings viewers inside the human fallout of the Death Penalty, focusing not on courtroom arguments but on the people who choose—or feel compelled—to witness the final procedure.

Structured around the hours and rituals that precede the execution, the documentary interweaves flashbacks and reflections that reveal why different individuals step into the witness room. Harris’ brother Randall faces a defining decision in choosing to attend, while family members of the victims confront grief, anger, and the hope that an execution might deliver justice or closure. Law enforcement voices add another layer, describing the official process while grappling with what it costs emotionally to carry it out. Across these perspectives, the film keeps returning to the same uneasy question: where is the line between justice and vengeance, and what does witnessing death do to the people left behind?

As the execution itself becomes the narrative’s emotional climax, the focus shifts from abstract debates to a visceral confrontation with finality—an experience shaped by the stark spaces of the execution chamber and the weight of procedure. In the aftermath, the documentary lingers on the unresolved nature of moral certainty, showing how the event reverberates long after it ends and how the Death Penalty leaves complicated, lasting scars on everyone in its orbit. Watch to witness this intimate, multifaceted exploration of justice, morality, and the human cost of an execution.

In the late 1970s and 1980s, rising violent crime fears and a tough on crime mood followed the 1976 Supreme Court rulings that restored the death penalty. In California, victims rights politics and long appeals made executions rare until the early 1990s, when the state resumed them at San Quentin.

Knowledge Quiz

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Pick an answer to see whether you got it right — and why.

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This film’s dominant mode is **expository**. It is driven by tightly structured testimonies from witnesses—family members, law enforcement, and the condemned’s brother—assembled to weigh meaning rather than simply record events. That approach sharpens the film’s viewpoint, pressing viewers to confront the human cost of capital punishment.

Director & Year: Jaap van Hoewijk, Rikkert Boonstra, 1995.

Condemned Prisoner: Robert Alton Harris (1953–1992), convicted of murdering two teenage boys in San Diego in 1978 and executed at San Quentin State Prison on April 21, 1992 (Wikipedia; Los Angeles Times).

Family Witness: Randall Harris (brother of Robert Alton Harris), identified as one of the interviewed witnesses who attended the April 21, 1992 execution at San Quentin (IDFA Archive; IMDb).

Victim’s Father: Steve Baker (father of one of the murder victims), listed among the on-camera witnesses discussing the execution experience (IMDb).

1978 Murders: Crime backstory (July 5, 1978), Harris killed two teenage boys in San Diego and the case later led to a death sentence (Congressional Record (GovInfo PDF)).

Trial & Sentence: Court judgment (March 6, 1979), the San Diego Superior Court imposed a death sentence after a jury convicted Harris of two counts of first-degree murder (Congressional Record (GovInfo PDF)).

Execution Witnesses: Witnessed execution (49 official witnesses), the gas-chamber procedure was observed from behind glass and later recounted by 11 interviewed witnesses including relatives of the victims and of Harris (IDFA Archive).

Death Penalty Context: California legal context (first state execution since 1967), Harris’s April 21, 1992 execution went forward after multiple last-minute stays and intervention from the U.S. Supreme Court (Los Angeles Times; The Washington Post; Wikipedia).

Topical context

This film is part of the World Map of Conflict dataset—an interactive documentary collection that combines curated films with conflict data and country context to explain geopolitical developments since 1945.

Within the collection, the film sits in the Tradition and Religion educational pathway, which examines tensions that arise when globalist forces collide with currents of traditionalism..
The Rise of Populism in the United States, which is the film’s overarching topic, links capital punishment to polarization, turning justice into grievance between traditionalist retribution and liberal legalism.
The film asks how a public execution spectacle turns religiously inflected ideas of justice into populist us-versus-them politics within modernity’s clash between traditionalism and globalist legal norms.

Learning Throughlines

State Procedure, Not Personal Drama.
The film takes its title from the state’s own paperwork — the warden’s office simply calls it “Procedure number 769,” a bureaucratic label for killing Robert Alton Harris. Witnesses are sorted into administrative categories (state, VIP, news media) rather than treated as individuals, showing how the machinery of capital punishment turns a death into a scheduled, catalogued event. 'Procedure number 769' — an execution filed as paperwork 00:01:56

Reclaiming a Brother From the Tabloids.
Robert Harris’s brother Randall opens his testimony with his job, then names the press’s cruelest shorthand for his brother — “the Laughing Killer” — before insisting the story is about the last days he actually witnessed. His account pushes back against a headline that flattened a person into a punchline. 'My brother was Robert Alton Harris, the Laughing Killer' 00:11:17

Justice, Not Revenge.
More than one witness connected to the victims draws a careful line between wanting Harris dead and wanting to see “justice served,” rejecting the idea that they came to San Quentin for vengeance — a distinction the film keeps testing. 'It was more just justice' — not revenge 00:17:20

An Execution as a Stepping-Stone.
One witness recalls how proximity to the case opened “a whole political arena,” giving someone his “foot in the door” into a job under California Governor Pete Wilson — a quiet indictment of how capital cases became currency in the era’s tough-on-crime politics, tying this single execution straight into the populism thread. A death-penalty case as a doorway into the governor's office 00:16:36

Forgiveness Without Resolution.
In the closing testimonies, witnesses reach for forgiveness rather than closure: one reads an ambiguous final gesture from Harris as “his last expression of control,” another describes forgiving him as her own Christian conviction rather than his redemption. The film ends without certainty about justice — only witnesses still working through what they saw. 'Forgiveness' — witnesses searching for peace, not verdicts 01:13:14

Related topics

Documentary Mode

This film’s dominant mode is **expository**. It is driven by tightly structured testimonies from witnesses—family members, law enforcement, and the condemned’s brother—assembled to weigh meaning rather than simply record events. That approach sharpens the film’s viewpoint, pressing viewers to confront the human cost of capital punishment.

Key Facts

Director & Year: Jaap van Hoewijk, Rikkert Boonstra, 1995.

Condemned Prisoner: Robert Alton Harris (1953–1992), convicted of murdering two teenage boys in San Diego in 1978 and executed at San Quentin State Prison on April 21, 1992 (Wikipedia; Los Angeles Times).

Family Witness: Randall Harris (brother of Robert Alton Harris), identified as one of the interviewed witnesses who attended the April 21, 1992 execution at San Quentin (IDFA Archive; IMDb).

Victim’s Father: Steve Baker (father of one of the murder victims), listed among the on-camera witnesses discussing the execution experience (IMDb).

1978 Murders: Crime backstory (July 5, 1978), Harris killed two teenage boys in San Diego and the case later led to a death sentence (Congressional Record (GovInfo PDF)).

Trial & Sentence: Court judgment (March 6, 1979), the San Diego Superior Court imposed a death sentence after a jury convicted Harris of two counts of first-degree murder (Congressional Record (GovInfo PDF)).

Execution Witnesses: Witnessed execution (49 official witnesses), the gas-chamber procedure was observed from behind glass and later recounted by 11 interviewed witnesses including relatives of the victims and of Harris (IDFA Archive).

Death Penalty Context: California legal context (first state execution since 1967), Harris’s April 21, 1992 execution went forward after multiple last-minute stays and intervention from the U.S. Supreme Court (Los Angeles Times; The Washington Post; Wikipedia).

Tags conflictCrimeDeath sentenceElectric ChairMurderPrisonRobert Alton HarrisSan Quentin
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    Externally, Bosnia and Herzegovina faces challenges related to its relationship with neighboring countries. Serbia has historically supported Bosnian Serbs, while Croatia has supported Bosnian Croats, leading to tensions and occasional political interference. Additionally, there are concerns about the influence of external actors, such as Russia and Turkey, who have sought to exert their influence in the region.

    The implications of these conflicts and power dynamics are significant for the region. The fragile power-sharing system established by the Dayton Agreement has created a complex political landscape, with frequent political deadlock and tensions between the ethnic groups. The unresolved issues from the war, such as war crimes and missing persons, continue to hinder reconciliation efforts. The external interference and geopolitical rivalries further complicate the situation, potentially undermining stability and impeding the country’s progress towards EU integration.

    The threat level assessment for Bosnia and Herzegovina can be considered as unlikely to escalate. While there are occasional political tensions and disputes, the country has made progress in maintaining peace and stability since the war. The international community, particularly the EU, has been actively involved in supporting the country’s development and reconciliation efforts. However, the risk of political deadlock and ethnic tensions remains, requiring continued attention and engagement from both domestic and international actors to prevent any potential escalation.

    Botswana 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Botswana is a landlocked country in Southern Africa that has enjoyed relative political stability since gaining independence in 1966. Internally, the country has experienced minimal conflicts, with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces according to UCDP data. However, Botswana faces challenges such as income inequality, high unemployment rates, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Externally, Botswana has maintained peaceful relations with its neighbors and has been actively involved in regional initiatives, such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Overall, the geopolitical situation in Botswana is characterized by internal socio-economic challenges rather than significant internal or external conflicts. The threat level assessment for Botswana is unlikely to escalate.

    Brazil 2022

    Total Deaths1482
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths109
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths1373

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Bonde do Maluco, PCC, Comando Vermelho

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    Okaida vs Estados Unidos
    Comando Vermelho vs GDE
    Click for more

    Conflict Summary:

    Brazil has been facing internal conflicts involving various criminal organizations such as Comando Vermelho, PCC, and Bonde do Maluco. These groups are engaged in territorial disputes, drug trafficking, and organized crime activities. Additionally, there have been clashes between these criminal organizations and other groups like GDE, Sindicato RN, and Cartel do Norte. These conflicts have resulted in a significant number of deaths and pose a threat to public security in the country. While the conflicts primarily affect Brazil, the involvement of international actors such as the United States and the implications of drug trafficking for the region make it a matter of concern beyond national borders. The threat level assessment for the region is high, as the conflicts have the potential to escalate and further destabilize the country and neighboring nations.

    Brunei 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Brunei, a small Southeast Asian nation, has enjoyed relative stability both internally and externally. Internally, the country has been ruled by Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah since 1967, maintaining a strong grip on power. There have been no significant internal conflicts or challenges to the government’s authority. Externally, Brunei has maintained peaceful relations with its neighbors and has actively pursued diplomatic engagement in regional organizations such as ASEAN.

    The main actors involved in Brunei’s geopolitical situation are the ruling monarchy, led by Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, and neighboring countries in Southeast Asia. Brunei has maintained friendly relations with its neighbors, including Malaysia and Indonesia, and has actively participated in regional initiatives to promote economic cooperation and security.

    The implications for the region are generally positive, as Brunei’s stability and diplomatic engagement contribute to regional peace and cooperation. Brunei’s oil and gas reserves also play a significant role in the country’s economy and contribute to its influence in the region.

    The threat level assessment for Brunei is unlikely to escalate. The country’s internal stability, strong government control, and peaceful relations with neighboring countries indicate a low likelihood of internal or external conflicts. Brunei’s focus on diplomacy and regional cooperation further reduces the risk of escalation.

    Bulgaria 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Bulgaria is a country located in Southeastern Europe, bordered by Romania to the north, Serbia and North Macedonia to the west, Greece and Turkey to the south, and the Black Sea to the east. Internally, Bulgaria has faced challenges related to corruption, organized crime, and political instability. Externally, Bulgaria has had disputes with neighboring countries over issues such as territorial claims and minority rights. The main actors involved in these conflicts include the Bulgarian government, neighboring countries, and international organizations. The implications for the region include potential tensions and strained relations between Bulgaria and its neighbors, as well as the impact on regional stability and cooperation. The threat level assessment for Bulgaria’s conflicts is generally considered unlikely to escalate, but occasional flare-ups and diplomatic tensions can occur.

    Burkina Faso 2022

    Total Deaths6875
    Battle Related Deaths2047
    Targeted Civilian Deaths4423
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths405

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Burkina Faso vs IS
    Government of Burkina Faso vs JNIM

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS, Government of Burkina Faso, JNIM

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    IS vs JNIM

    Conflict Summary:

    Burkina Faso is currently facing two key internal conflicts involving the Government of Burkina Faso and two armed groups, the Islamic State (IS) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). The Government of Burkina Faso is engaged in separate battles against both groups, with IS seeking to establish a presence in the country and JNIM aiming to expand its influence. These conflicts have international dimensions, as IS and JNIM are non-territorial and have links to global jihadist networks. The implications for the region are concerning, as the instability in Burkina Faso could potentially spill over into neighboring countries, exacerbating existing security challenges. The threat level assessment for the region is high, as the conflicts have the potential to escalate and further destabilize the area.

    Burundi 2022

    Total Deaths273
    Battle Related Deaths234
    Targeted Civilian Deaths39
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Burundi vs FNL-Ubugabo-Burihabwa
    Government of Burundi vs RED-TABARA

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Government of Burundi

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Burundi has experienced internal conflicts between the government and rebel groups, such as FNL-Ubugabo-Burihabwa and RED-TABARA. These conflicts have been internationalized, with involvement from neighboring DR Congo (Zaire). The main actors involved are the Government of Burundi and the rebel groups, with DR Congo (Zaire) providing support to some of these groups. The conflicts have implications for the region as they contribute to instability and insecurity, potentially spilling over into neighboring countries. The threat level assessment is high, as the conflicts have the potential to escalate and further destabilize the region.

    Cambodia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Cambodia has experienced a complex geopolitical situation marked by both internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country has faced political instability and power struggles, particularly between the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) and the opposition. The main external conflict revolves around Cambodia’s territorial disputes with neighboring countries, particularly Thailand and Vietnam, over border areas and offshore islands. These conflicts have implications for the region as they strain diplomatic relations and hinder regional cooperation. The threat level assessment for Cambodia’s geopolitical situation is likely, as the unresolved conflicts and power struggles pose ongoing risks to stability and regional relations.

    Cameroon 2022

    Total Deaths4542
    Battle Related Deaths406
    Targeted Civilian Deaths4136
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Cameroon vs Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad
    Government of Cameroon vs Ambazonia insurgents

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS, Government of Cameroon, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, Ambazonia insurgents

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Cameroon is currently facing two major internal conflicts. The first is between the Government of Cameroon and the extremist group Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, also known as Boko Haram. The government has been engaged in a military campaign against the group, which has carried out numerous attacks in the country. The second conflict is between the Government of Cameroon and the Ambazonia insurgents, who seek to establish an independent state in the Anglophone regions of the country.

    The main actors involved in these conflicts are the Government of Cameroon, Boko Haram, and the Ambazonia insurgents. The government has been deploying its military forces to combat both groups, while Boko Haram has been carrying out attacks primarily in the northern regions of the country. The Ambazonia insurgents, on the other hand, have been engaging in guerrilla warfare tactics in the Anglophone regions.

    These conflicts have significant implications for the region. The activities of Boko Haram have not only destabilized Cameroon but also pose a threat to neighboring countries such as Nigeria, Chad, and Niger. The Ambazonia insurgency has led to a humanitarian crisis, with thousands of people being displaced and a rise in violence in the affected regions. The conflicts also have the potential to exacerbate existing ethnic and linguistic tensions within Cameroon.

    The threat level assessment for these conflicts is high. Boko Haram has demonstrated its ability to carry out large-scale attacks and has shown resilience despite military efforts to combat it. The Ambazonia insurgency, although less powerful, has the potential to escalate and further destabilize the country. The involvement of multiple armed groups and the complex nature of the conflicts make it unlikely that they will be resolved in the near future.

    Canada 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Canada is a stable country with a relatively low level of internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country has a history of tensions between its English-speaking majority and French-speaking minority in the province of Quebec, although these tensions have significantly decreased in recent years. Externally, Canada has been involved in various peacekeeping missions around the world, particularly through its participation in the United Nations. The main actors involved in Canada’s geopolitical situation are the federal government, provincial governments, indigenous communities, and international organizations. Overall, the threat level assessment for Canada is unlikely to escalate, as the country has a strong democratic system, effective governance, and a commitment to peacekeeping and diplomacy.

    Central African Republic 2022

    Total Deaths767
    Battle Related Deaths675
    Targeted Civilian Deaths92
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Central African Republic vs CPC

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: CPC, Government of Central African Republic

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The Central African Republic (CAR) has been plagued by internal conflicts, with the main actor being the Government of CAR and the armed group known as the CPC (Coalition of Patriots for Change). The conflict between the government and the CPC has resulted in widespread violence and displacement of civilians. The government has struggled to maintain control over the territory, leading to an internationalized intrastate conflict. The implications for the region include the potential for spillover of violence and the exacerbation of existing regional tensions. The threat level assessment for the situation in CAR is high, as the conflict has the potential to escalate further and destabilize the entire region.

    Chad 2022

    Total Deaths85
    Battle Related Deaths45
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths40

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Chad vs IS

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    Farmers (Chad) vs Herders (Chad)

    Conflict Summary:

    Chad is currently facing multiple internal and external conflicts that have significant implications for the region. Internally, there is a longstanding conflict between farmers and herders, which has resulted in frequent clashes and loss of lives. The government of Chad is also engaged in a battle against the Islamic State (IS), which has been attempting to establish a presence in the country. Externally, Chad faces threats from neighboring countries such as Libya, Sudan, and the Central African Republic, which have been sources of instability and armed groups. These conflicts pose a high threat level assessment as they have the potential to escalate and further destabilize the region.

    Chile 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Chile is a politically stable country with no significant internal conflicts. However, it has faced social unrest and protests in recent years, primarily driven by economic inequality and demands for political reforms. The main actors involved in these protests are the general population, civil society organizations, and the government. Externally, Chile has maintained peaceful relations with its neighboring countries and has actively participated in regional organizations such as the Pacific Alliance.

    The implications for the region are relatively low, as Chile’s internal conflicts have not escalated into violence or posed a direct threat to its neighbors. The government has shown a willingness to address the concerns raised by the protests through dialogue and reforms. However, the ongoing social unrest highlights the need for continued efforts to address inequality and political grievances to ensure long-term stability. Overall, the threat level assessment for Chile is unlikely to escalate, but it is essential to monitor and address the underlying issues to prevent potential future conflicts.

    China 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: While the UCDP does not report any deaths related to its three conflict categories due to a lack of supporting evidence, many Western governments and reputable human rights organizations suggest that the Chinese Government is killing civilians on a significant scale. For instance, Amnesty International has presented evidence from its investigations, which includes a comprehensive report and detailed information on over 120 cases of missing or detained persons since 2017. This evidence provides a solid foundation for concluding that the Chinese government has committed crimes against humanity, including imprisonment, torture, and persecution. Notably, killing civilians is not yet included in the list of crimes committed because none of the individuals missing have been officially reported as dead or killed.

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    China is currently facing several internal and external conflicts that have significant implications for the region. Internally, the Chinese government is grappling with issues related to human rights, ethnic tensions, and separatist movements in regions like Tibet and Xinjiang. Externally, China is engaged in territorial disputes with neighboring countries in the South China Sea, particularly over the control of strategic islands and maritime resources. The main actors involved in these conflicts include the Chinese government, ethnic minority groups, neighboring countries like Japan and Vietnam, and international organizations like the United Nations. The implications of these conflicts are far-reaching, as they have the potential to disrupt regional stability, impact global trade routes, and strain diplomatic relations. The threat level assessment for these conflicts is high, as any escalation could lead to military confrontations, economic disruptions, and increased tensions in the region.

    Colombia 2022

    Total Deaths111
    Battle Related Deaths73
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths38

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Colombia vs FARC – Mordisco

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    FARC – Mordisco vs ELN

    Conflict Summary:

    Colombia has been grappling with internal conflicts for decades, with the main actor being the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The government of Colombia has been engaged in a long-standing battle against FARC, a non-territorial intrastate group seeking to overthrow the government and establish a Marxist regime. In recent years, FARC has also been involved in clashes with another rebel group, the National Liberation Army (ELN). These conflicts have had significant implications for the region, including drug trafficking, displacement of civilians, and destabilization of neighboring countries. The threat level assessment for Colombia remains high, as the conflicts have the potential to escalate and continue to pose challenges to the country’s stability and security.

    Comoros 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Comoros is a small island nation located off the eastern coast of Africa. Internally, the country has faced political instability and power struggles since gaining independence in 1975. The main internal conflict revolves around the struggle for power between different political factions, often leading to coup attempts and political unrest. Externally, Comoros has a territorial dispute with France over the island of Mayotte, which remains under French control. This dispute has strained relations between the two countries and has implications for regional stability. The general threat level assessment for Comoros is unlikely to escalate, as the country’s conflicts have mostly remained internal and have not significantly impacted the wider region.

    Congo 2022

    Total Deaths3
    Battle Related Deaths3
    Targeted Civilian Deaths
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    Conflict Summary:

    Present-day Republic of Congo (also called Congo-Brazzaville and the Congo) was known as Middle Congo during colonial times. The country gained independence from France in 1960, whereupon decades of turbulent politics followed. Organized violence in Congo was closely related to the democratization process that started in the early 90s. Since 1989 the Republic of Congo has experienced the intrastate and one-sided categories of UCDP organized violence.

    Constant violence

    The country was ruled by a string of presidents, some military and some civilian, all with the common denominator that they seized power through unconstitutional means. In 1964, the Marxist-Leninist MNR (Mouvement national de la révolution, National Revolutionary Movement) was formed as the country’s sole legal party. In 1968 a new Marxist- Leninist party was established, the PCT (Parti Congolais du Travail, Congolese Labour Party), replacing MNR. PCT came to dominate the political life of the country until the early 1990s, when a democratization process was initiated.

    The main ethnic groups in the country are the Bacongo, the Batéké, the MBochi, and the Sangha. Within most of these groups there are numerous subgroups. After the initiation of the democratization process, ethnicity came to play an important role in the country, as elites sought to mobilize their ethnic constituencies to gain political power. In effect, this also led to the outbreak of an intrastate armed conflict in 1993.

    In the wake of the 1992-93 legislative and presidential elections, which awarded victory to Pascal Lissouba and his party UPADS (Union Panafricaine pour la Démocratie Sociale, the Pan-African Union for Social Democracy), the political elites plunged the country into three phases of subsequent intrastate conflict – 1993-94, 1997-99 and 2002 – as they competed for control over the government. To make credible claims to power, the three main parties mobilized youths from their respective ethnic constituency into armed militias – the Cobras (PCT), the Cocoyes (UPADS) and the Ninjas (MCDDI: Mouvement congolais pour la démocratie et le développement intégral, the Congolese Movement for Democracy and Integral Development).

    Levels of violence varied during the three phases of the conflict, and the highest peak of fatalities took place in 1997 and 1998 in the regions of Brazzaville, Bouenza, Pool and Kouilou, among others. Instances of one-sided violence became a regular occurrence perpetrated by two successive governments. The opposition side also made use of one-sided violence. While the Cobras carried out acts of violence against civilians mostly in 1997 in the Brazzaville region, the Ntsiloulous perpetrated civilian massacres in 1998, 2002 and 2003 in the Bouenza, Pool and Brazzaville regions.

    After the signing of the peace agreement in 2003, violence kept erupting sporadically around the fate of the Ntsiloulous fighters in Brazzaville, as well as new elections in 2016.

    Costa Rica 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Costa Rica is a politically stable country in Central America with a long-standing tradition of democracy. It has no standing army and has not been involved in any external conflicts in recent history. Internally, the country has faced challenges related to drug trafficking and organized crime, primarily due to its strategic location between drug-producing countries in South America and the United States as a major consumer market. The main actors involved in addressing these issues are the Costa Rican government, law enforcement agencies, and international partners such as the United States. While the country has successfully managed these challenges, the threat level assessment for Costa Rica is unlikely to escalate, given its strong institutions and commitment to peace.

    Côte d’Ivoire 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The geopolitical situation in Côte d’Ivoire has been marked by internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country experienced a civil war from 2002 to 2007, which resulted in a division between the government-controlled south and rebel-held north. The main actors involved were the government forces led by President Laurent Gbagbo and the rebel groups known as the Forces Nouvelles. This conflict had significant implications for the region, as it led to a humanitarian crisis and the displacement of thousands of people.

    Externally, Côte d’Ivoire has faced tensions with neighboring countries, particularly Liberia and Burkina Faso, due to allegations of support for rebel groups. These allegations have strained diplomatic relations and contributed to the instability in the region. Additionally, the country has experienced political unrest and post-electoral violence, particularly during the 2010-2011 presidential election, which resulted in a power struggle between Gbagbo and his rival Alassane Ouattara.

    The threat level assessment for Côte d’Ivoire can be considered high. While the civil war has officially ended, there are still underlying tensions and potential for renewed violence. The presence of armed groups and the history of political instability pose ongoing risks to the country’s stability. Furthermore, the involvement of external actors and the potential for regional spillover make it crucial to closely monitor the situation in Côte d’Ivoire.

    Croatia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Croatia is a non-territorial country with no current internal conflicts. However, it has faced historical tensions with its neighboring countries, particularly Serbia, stemming from the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. The main actors involved in these conflicts were the Croatian and Serbian governments, as well as various ethnic and nationalist groups. The implications for the region include strained relations, occasional border disputes, and the need for ongoing reconciliation efforts. Currently, the threat level for escalation is unlikely, as both Croatia and Serbia are focused on their respective EU accession processes and have made progress in improving bilateral relations.

    Cuba 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Cuba has been relatively stable in terms of internal conflicts, with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces according to UCDP data. However, the country has faced external conflicts, particularly with the United States. The main actor involved in this conflict has been the Cuban government led by the Communist Party, which has been in power since the 1959 revolution. The conflict has had significant implications for the region, including strained diplomatic relations and economic sanctions imposed by the United States. Overall, the threat level assessment for Cuba is unlikely to escalate, as both countries have taken steps towards normalizing relations in recent years.

    Cyprus 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Cyprus has been divided since 1974, following a Turkish invasion in response to a Greek Cypriot coup. The island is split into two parts: the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus in the south, and the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north, recognized only by Turkey. The main internal conflict revolves around the issue of reunification, with negotiations ongoing but no significant progress made. The main external conflict involves the competing claims over offshore natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean, with Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, and other regional actors involved. The implications for the region include potential tensions, increased militarization, and the risk of escalation. The threat level assessment is high, as the unresolved conflicts and competing interests continue to pose a risk of further instability and potential military confrontation.

    Czech Republic 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The Czech Republic is a stable country with no significant internal or external conflicts. It has a parliamentary democracy and is a member of the European Union and NATO. The main actors involved in the country’s geopolitical situation are the government, political parties, and civil society organizations. The Czech Republic maintains good relations with its neighboring countries and actively participates in regional cooperation initiatives. The threat level assessment for the Czech Republic is unlikely to escalate, as it enjoys political stability and has a strong rule of law.

    Denmark 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Denmark is a stable country with no significant internal conflicts. It has a well-functioning democratic system and a strong rule of law. Externally, Denmark maintains peaceful relations with its neighboring countries and is an active member of international organizations such as NATO and the European Union. It has been involved in international peacekeeping missions and contributes to global security efforts. The threat level assessment for Denmark is generally low, as it faces no immediate external threats and has a strong defense system in place.

    Djibouti 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Djibouti, a small country located in the Horn of Africa, faces several key internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country grapples with political instability and a lack of democratic governance, with President Ismail Omar Guelleh’s ruling party dominating the political landscape. Externally, Djibouti is involved in a territorial dispute with Eritrea over the Ras Doumeira border area, which has led to sporadic clashes in the past. Additionally, Djibouti hosts several foreign military bases, including those of the United States, China, France, and Japan, making it a strategic location in the region.

    The main actors involved in Djibouti’s geopolitical situation include the government, opposition groups, neighboring countries, and foreign powers. The ruling party’s control over the government has led to tensions with opposition groups, who have accused the government of suppressing dissent and limiting political freedoms. Neighboring Eritrea’s territorial dispute with Djibouti has strained relations between the two countries, although recent peace talks have shown some progress. Furthermore, the presence of foreign military bases in Djibouti has raised concerns about potential power rivalries and conflicts among these external actors.

    The implications of these conflicts for the region are significant. Political instability and lack of democratic governance in Djibouti could potentially lead to social unrest and further exacerbate regional tensions. The territorial dispute with Eritrea has the potential to escalate into a larger conflict, affecting stability in the Horn of Africa. Moreover, the presence of multiple foreign military bases in Djibouti raises concerns about the potential for proxy conflicts and power struggles among these external actors.

    In terms of threat level assessment, the situation in Djibouti is currently unlikely to escalate into a high-level conflict. While internal political tensions and the territorial dispute with Eritrea pose risks, recent peace talks and diplomatic efforts indicate a willingness to find peaceful resolutions. However, the presence of foreign military bases and potential power rivalries among external actors could increase the risk of localized clashes or proxy conflicts. Therefore, a cautious approach and continued diplomatic efforts are necessary to maintain stability in the region.

    Dominica 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Dominica is a small island nation in the Caribbean with a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, the country has not experienced any significant conflicts or violence involving government forces. However, it has faced challenges related to natural disasters, such as hurricanes, which have had a significant impact on the country’s infrastructure and economy.

    Externally, Dominica has maintained peaceful relations with its neighboring countries and has not been involved in any major territorial disputes or conflicts. The main actors involved in the region include other Caribbean nations, international organizations, and foreign investors.

    The implications for the region are generally positive, as Dominica’s stability contributes to the overall peace and security of the Caribbean. The country’s focus on sustainable development and ecotourism has also attracted international attention and investment, which further enhances its position in the region.

    In terms of threat level assessment, Dominica is considered unlikely to escalate or face any significant conflicts in the near future. However, it is important to note that the country’s vulnerability to natural disasters remains a concern, and efforts to mitigate these risks should continue to be a priority.

    Dominican Republic 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The Dominican Republic has maintained a relatively stable geopolitical situation with limited internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country has faced challenges related to corruption, drug trafficking, and social inequality. The main actors involved in these issues include the government, law enforcement agencies, criminal organizations, and civil society groups advocating for reform. Externally, the Dominican Republic has maintained peaceful relations with its neighboring countries and has actively participated in regional organizations such as the Organization of American States.

    The implications for the region are generally positive, as the Dominican Republic’s stability contributes to regional security and economic cooperation. However, the country’s proximity to drug-producing countries in the Caribbean and its role as a transit point for drug trafficking pose challenges to its internal security. Additionally, the country’s efforts to combat corruption and improve social conditions are crucial for maintaining stability and preventing potential conflicts.

    In terms of threat level assessment, the likelihood of escalation is generally low. While the country faces internal challenges, it has demonstrated a commitment to addressing them through reforms and cooperation with international partners. The Dominican Republic’s peaceful relations with its neighbors and active participation in regional organizations further contribute to a stable geopolitical environment. However, ongoing efforts to combat drug trafficking and corruption are necessary to mitigate potential risks and maintain the country’s stability.

    DR Congo 2022

    Total Deaths5912
    Battle Related Deaths1754
    Targeted Civilian Deaths3347
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths811

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of DR Congo (Zaire) vs CNPSC
    Government of DR Congo (Zaire) vs IS
    Government of DR Congo (Zaire) vs Mayi Mayi Kyandenga
    Government of DR Congo (Zaire) vs RNL
    Government of DR Congo (Zaire) vs Mayi Mayi Biloze Bishambuke

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS, Government of Burundi, ALC, AFP-Gutabara, Ngumino, Twiganeho, CODECO-BTD, FDBC, Government of DR Congo (Zaire), Government of Rwanda, M23, FPIC, FPIC, URDPC, URDPC, Zaire self-defense group, Government of South Sudan

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    FPP-AP vs NDC-R
    URDPC vs Zaire self-defense group
    Click for more

    Conflict Summary:

    The Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo, formerly Zaire), viewed by many as the epitome of a collapsed state, has been torn by intertwined and complex conflicts on the regional, national and local levels. Rebel factions have both fought the government and each other, as well as attacked civilians and experienced internecine violence. The vast country is rich in natural resources, a fact that has prolonged some of the conflicts. With a total of 129.595 fatalities to be mourned since 1989, DR Congo (Zaire) has experienced the intrastate, non-state and one-sided categories of organized violence, as defined by UCDP.

    In continuation of previous years, DR Congo served as a battleground for domestic and neighboring opposition groups. But the conflict intensified in 2022, particularly after Rwanda’s support for M23 became apparent. This led to shifts in alliances, and groups like APCLS and CMC ceased conflict with the government, supporting them against M23 and Rwanda. The most violent areas were the eastern provinces of Ituri, Nord Kivu, and Sud Kivu, but new non-state conflicts also emerged in other regions.

    One-sided violence, where one party targets civilians, saw an increase in fatalities in 2022. IS increased its attacks on Congolese soil, with over 1000 fatalities. Attacks also escalated in Ituri, with various militia groups stepping up their activities, while one-sided violence by the DR Congo government continued across eastern provinces.

    Fatalities in non-state conflicts also rose in 2022, with new clashes emerging across several provinces, though some other conflicts ended. Various disputes, particularly over land and resources, led to localized violence, with fluctuating levels of escalation and de-escalation. Additionally, communal violence broke out in the western part of the country, and a land dispute erupted in the central regions.

    Overall, 2022 was marked by a complex web of conflict and violence in DR Congo, involving multiple state and non-state actors, shifting alliances, and an overall increase in fatalities.

    Ecuador 2022

    Total Deaths112
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths25
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths87

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Jalisco Cartel New Generation

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    Los Lobos vs R7

    Conflict Summary:

    Ecuador is currently facing several internal and external conflicts that have significant implications for the region. Internally, the country has been dealing with drug trafficking and organized crime, particularly the presence of the Jalisco Cartel New Generation. This criminal group has been involved in violent clashes with other criminal organizations, such as Los Lobos and R7. These conflicts have resulted in a high number of battle-related deaths.

    Externally, Ecuador has been dealing with border disputes with neighboring countries, particularly Colombia and Peru. These disputes have led to occasional tensions and sporadic armed clashes. Additionally, Ecuador has been facing challenges related to illegal immigration and the influx of refugees from neighboring countries, such as Venezuela.

    The main actors involved in these conflicts are the government forces, criminal organizations, and neighboring countries. The government has been actively combating drug trafficking and organized crime, but their efforts have not been entirely successful in eradicating these issues. The involvement of neighboring countries in border disputes adds another layer of complexity to the situation.

    The geopolitical situation in Ecuador poses a moderate threat level assessment. While the conflicts involving criminal organizations and border disputes have the potential to escalate, the government’s efforts to address these issues and maintain stability in the region make it unlikely for the situation to escalate to a high threat level. However, continued vigilance and effective measures are necessary to prevent further escalation and ensure regional stability.

    Egypt 2022

    Total Deaths4014
    Battle Related Deaths231
    Targeted Civilian Deaths3783
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Egypt vs IS

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Egypt is currently facing a complex geopolitical situation with both internal and external conflicts. Internally, the main conflict is between the Government of Egypt and the Islamic State (IS). The government has been engaged in a military campaign against IS, which has carried out numerous attacks in the Sinai Peninsula. Externally, Egypt has been involved in regional conflicts, particularly in Libya, where it supports the Libyan National Army against various armed groups. These conflicts have implications for the region, as they contribute to instability and the spread of extremism. The threat level assessment for Egypt is high, as the ongoing conflicts and presence of extremist groups pose significant risks to the country and the wider region.

    El Salvador 2022

    Total Deaths88
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths88
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Mara Salvatrucha (El Salvador)

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    El Salvador is currently facing several internal and external conflicts that have significant implications for the region. Internally, the country is grappling with high levels of violence and crime, largely driven by the presence of powerful gangs such as Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13). These gangs engage in drug trafficking, extortion, and other criminal activities, posing a major challenge to the government’s efforts to maintain law and order. Externally, El Salvador has strained relations with neighboring countries, particularly Honduras and Guatemala, due to issues such as territorial disputes and cross-border criminal activities. The main actors involved in these conflicts include the Salvadoran government, security forces, and various criminal organizations. The implications for the region are concerning, as the violence and instability in El Salvador can spill over into neighboring countries, exacerbating existing challenges. The threat level assessment for the region is high, as the conflicts and criminal activities have the potential to escalate and further destabilize the area.

    Equatorial Guinea 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Equatorial Guinea is a small country located in Central Africa. Internally, the country has been ruled by President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo since 1979, who has maintained a tight grip on power through authoritarian means. There have been reports of human rights abuses and political repression under his regime. Externally, Equatorial Guinea has faced tensions with neighboring countries, particularly Gabon and Cameroon, over border disputes and maritime boundaries in the Gulf of Guinea.

    The main actors involved in the geopolitical situation of Equatorial Guinea include the government led by President Obiang, opposition groups, neighboring countries, and international actors interested in the country’s oil resources. The government has been accused of suppressing political opposition and limiting civil liberties, leading to occasional protests and unrest. The border disputes with Gabon and Cameroon have occasionally escalated, resulting in diplomatic tensions and occasional military posturing.

    The implications of the geopolitical situation in Equatorial Guinea for the region are primarily related to stability and resource competition. The country is one of Africa’s largest oil producers, and any internal or external conflicts could disrupt oil production and impact regional economies. Additionally, the authoritarian nature of the government and reports of human rights abuses have drawn criticism from international organizations and could affect the country’s relations with the international community.

    In terms of threat level assessment, the likelihood of internal conflicts escalating in Equatorial Guinea is relatively low. President Obiang’s regime has been successful in maintaining control and suppressing opposition. However, the potential for external conflicts, particularly over border disputes and maritime boundaries, remains a concern. The involvement of international actors and the importance of oil resources in the region could further complicate the situation. Overall, the threat level assessment for Equatorial Guinea is moderate, with a potential for escalation depending on the handling of external disputes and internal political dynamics.

    Eritrea 2022

    Total Deaths11040
    Battle Related Deaths10000
    Targeted Civilian Deaths1040
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: According to UCDP data, Eritrean government forces have deliberately killed 1.040 civilians in the Tigray region.

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Eritrea, located in the Horn of Africa, has faced significant geopolitical challenges both internally and externally. Internally, the country has been under the authoritarian rule of President Isaias Afwerki since its independence in 1993, leading to limited political freedoms and human rights abuses. The government’s control over the economy and military has also contributed to internal tensions. Externally, Eritrea has been involved in conflicts with neighboring countries, particularly Ethiopia and Djibouti, over border disputes and territorial claims.

    The main actors involved in these conflicts include the Eritrean government, Ethiopian government, and Djiboutian government. Eritrea and Ethiopia engaged in a bloody border war from 1998 to 2000, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties. Although a peace agreement was signed in 2000, the border dispute remains unresolved, leading to occasional skirmishes and tensions between the two countries. Eritrea’s relations with Djibouti have also been strained due to territorial disputes, resulting in clashes between their respective militaries.

    The implications of these conflicts for the region are significant. The unresolved border disputes and ongoing tensions have hindered regional stability and economic integration. In 2020, due to a sudden power shift in the Ethiopian government, Eritrea joined forces with the Ethiopian army to fight the TPLF in the Tigray region bordering Eritrea. The so-called Tigray War is so far the bloodiest conflict of the 21st century.Additionally, the authoritarian rule and human rights abuses in Eritrea have led to a significant number of Eritrean refugees fleeing to neighboring countries, creating social and economic challenges for the region.

    The threat level assessment for the geopolitical situation in Eritrea is likely. While a large-scale escalation of conflicts is unlikely, sporadic border clashes and tensions between Eritrea and its neighbors remain a concern. The authoritarian rule and human rights situation in Eritrea also pose long-term challenges and potential sources of instability. Efforts to resolve the border disputes and promote regional cooperation are crucial to mitigating the threat level and fostering stability in the region.

    Estonia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Estonia is a small Baltic country with a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, the country has not experienced any significant conflicts or violence involving government forces. Externally, Estonia has had historical tensions with Russia, stemming from its Soviet past and concerns over Russian influence in the region. The main actors involved in this dynamic are Estonia and Russia, with NATO also playing a role in ensuring Estonia’s security. The implications for the region include the potential for increased military presence and tensions between NATO and Russia. The threat level assessment for Estonia is generally considered to be unlikely to escalate, but the situation remains sensitive due to the ongoing geopolitical dynamics.

    Eswatini 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, is a landlocked country located in Southern Africa. Internally, the country has been facing political tensions and calls for democratic reforms. Pro-democracy activists have been demanding an end to the absolute monarchy and the establishment of a multiparty system. The main actors involved in this internal conflict are the pro-democracy activists and the ruling monarchy.

    Externally, Eswatini has maintained relatively peaceful relations with its neighboring countries. However, there have been occasional border disputes with South Africa, particularly regarding the management of shared water resources. These disputes have the potential to escalate, but they have not reached a critical level so far.

    The implications of the internal conflict in Eswatini are primarily domestic, as it directly affects the political stability and governance of the country. However, if the situation escalates and leads to widespread unrest, it could have regional implications, potentially affecting neighboring countries and regional stability.

    In terms of threat level assessment, the likelihood of the internal conflict escalating into a full-scale armed conflict is currently low. However, the situation remains volatile, and if the demands for democratic reforms are not addressed, tensions could increase, leading to a higher threat level in the future.

    Ethiopia 2022

    Total Deaths102903
    Battle Related Deaths101085
    Targeted Civilian Deaths1818
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Ethiopia vs TPLF
    Government of Ethiopia vs OLA
    Government of Ethiopia vs GLF

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Fano, Government of Eritrea, Government of Ethiopia, OLA, TPLF

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    In 2022, Ethiopia experienced levels of organized violence not before seen in the post 1989-period. Escalating dramatically from already high numbers in 2021, UCDP recorded more than 100 000 fatalities in the country during the year. This escalation was driven by developments in the state-based category of organized violence, as the war between the Ethiopian government and it allies (including the government of Eritrea) and TPLF saw a new extremely bloody round of fighting between late August and early November. Resembling WW1 fighting, it took the form of a bloody infantry war on several fronts, with both sides accused of using recently recruited fighters as cannon fodder, launching human wave attacks through mined areas towards enemy trenches. By its nature, this type of warfare causes massive death tolls and it is estimated that at least 100 000 fighters were killed on the battlefield in Amhara and Tigray regions between 24 August and 2 November.

    Another state-based conflict – that between the government and Oromo rebel group OLA – also escalated markedly in 2022, albeit on a completely different scale. Fighting surged in many parts of the Oromo region, causing over 750 fatalities.

    Well below the levels of violence in the state-based category, developments in one-sided violence were less dramatic in 2022, de-escalating from the highest peak of the period the year prior. At almost 2000 fatalities, the number nevertheless remained high, compared to earlier years. The actors responsible for the killing of civilians were all in some way connected to the state-based conflicts, highlighting the link between the two categories. The Eritrean government was responsible for the largest number of one-sided violence, killing at least over 1000 civilians in the Tigray region, as their troops advanced in the conflict against TPLF. While also the Ethiopian government targeted Tigrayan civilians during the August-November fighting, its troops carried out one-sided violence to the same extent in the Oromiya region, during its conflict against OLA. TPLF, OLA and the Amhara Fano militia also carried out one-sided violence in 2022, but to a lesser extent than the government actors did.

    Finland 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Finland is a Nordic country located in Northern Europe, known for its stable political environment and peaceful relations with its neighbors. Internally, Finland has not experienced any significant conflicts in recent years. Externally, Finland shares a border with Russia, and while there have been occasional tensions, the relationship between the two countries has generally been peaceful. Finland is a member of the European Union and NATO, which provides it with security guarantees and strengthens its position in the region. Overall, the geopolitical situation in Finland is characterized by stability and cooperation, with a low threat level and an unlikely likelihood of escalation.

    France 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    France is a Western European country with a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, it faces challenges related to social and economic issues, such as unemployment and inequality, which have led to occasional protests and civil unrest. Externally, France has been involved in conflicts in various regions, particularly in its former colonies in Africa, where it has deployed military forces to combat terrorism and support peacekeeping efforts. The main actors involved in these conflicts include armed groups, terrorist organizations, and regional governments. While the threat level assessment for France is generally unlikely to escalate, the country remains vigilant in addressing potential security risks, particularly in the face of terrorism and geopolitical tensions in the wider European region.

    French Guiana 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    French Guiana is an overseas department and region of France located on the northeastern coast of South America. It has a relatively stable geopolitical situation with no major internal or external conflicts. The main actors involved in the region are the French government, which exercises control over the territory, and the local population. French Guiana is known for its rich biodiversity and natural resources, which have attracted international attention. However, there are occasional protests and social unrest related to issues such as economic inequality and inadequate public services. Overall, the threat level assessment for French Guiana is unlikely to escalate, as there are no significant ongoing conflicts or tensions in the region.

    Gabon 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Gabon is a relatively stable country in Central Africa with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces, according to the UCDP data. Internally, the country has experienced some political tensions, particularly during the 2016 presidential elections, which resulted in protests and clashes between opposition supporters and security forces. However, these conflicts have not escalated into large-scale violence. Externally, Gabon has maintained peaceful relations with its neighbors and has not been involved in any major conflicts in the region. Overall, the geopolitical situation in Gabon is relatively calm, with a low threat level assessment for the escalation of conflicts.

    Gambia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The geopolitical situation in Gambia is relatively stable with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces. Internally, the country has experienced political tensions and human rights concerns under the previous regime of President Yahya Jammeh. However, since his departure in 2017, there have been efforts towards democratic reforms and reconciliation. Externally, Gambia has had strained relations with neighboring Senegal over border disputes, particularly regarding the Casamance region. The main actors involved in these conflicts include the Gambian government, opposition groups, regional organizations such as ECOWAS, and Senegal. Overall, the threat level assessment for Gambia is currently unlikely to escalate, given the ongoing democratic transition and efforts towards regional cooperation.

    Georgia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Georgia is a country located in the South Caucasus region, with key internal and external conflicts shaping its geopolitical situation. Internally, Georgia faces the challenge of separatist regions, particularly Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which declared independence in the early 1990s and were later recognized by Russia. This has led to ongoing tensions and occasional flare-ups, such as the 2008 Russo-Georgian War. Externally, Georgia’s main external conflict revolves around its relationship with Russia, which has supported the separatist regions and maintains a military presence in both. This has implications for the region as it contributes to instability and hampers Georgia’s aspirations to join NATO and the European Union. The threat level assessment for Georgia’s geopolitical situation is likely, as the unresolved conflicts and involvement of major actors like Russia continue to pose risks of escalation.

    Germany 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Germany is a stable country with no significant internal conflicts. It has a well-functioning democratic system and a strong economy. However, it faces some external challenges. One of the key issues is its relationship with Russia, particularly regarding energy dependence and security concerns in Eastern Europe. Germany is also involved in the European Union’s efforts to address the migration crisis and manage the integration of refugees. Additionally, Germany plays a crucial role in the European Union’s decision-making processes and is often seen as a leader in shaping EU policies. Overall, the threat level assessment for Germany is unlikely to escalate, given its stable internal situation and its commitment to diplomacy and cooperation within the European Union.

    Ghana 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Ghana has maintained a relatively stable geopolitical situation both internally and externally. Internally, the country has experienced minimal internal conflicts, with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces according to UCDP data. This stability can be attributed to Ghana’s strong democratic institutions and peaceful transitions of power. Externally, Ghana has maintained friendly relations with its neighboring countries and has actively participated in regional peacekeeping efforts. The main actors involved in Ghana’s geopolitical landscape include the government, political parties, civil society organizations, and regional bodies such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Overall, the threat level assessment for Ghana is unlikely to escalate, as the country has demonstrated a commitment to peace and stability both domestically and regionally.

    Gibraltar 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Gibraltar is a British Overseas Territory located on the southern coast of Spain. It has been a source of territorial dispute between the United Kingdom and Spain for many years. Spain claims sovereignty over Gibraltar and has occasionally heightened tensions by imposing border restrictions. The main actors involved in this conflict are the United Kingdom, which administers Gibraltar, and Spain, which seeks to regain control. The implications for the region include strained diplomatic relations between the two countries and potential disruptions to trade and movement of people. The threat level assessment for this conflict is unlikely to escalate to a full-scale military confrontation, but occasional flare-ups and diplomatic tensions are possible.

    Greece 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Greece has been relatively stable in terms of internal conflicts, with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces according to UCDP data. However, the country has faced external conflicts, particularly with Turkey, over territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea and the divided island of Cyprus. The main actors involved in these conflicts are the Greek and Turkish governments, with both sides asserting their claims and occasionally engaging in military posturing. These conflicts have implications for the region as they strain relations between Greece and Turkey, two NATO allies, and have the potential to escalate into a larger regional conflict. The threat level assessment for these conflicts is considered high, as tensions between Greece and Turkey remain unresolved and can quickly escalate.

    Grenada 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Grenada is a small island nation in the Caribbean with a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, the country has not experienced any significant conflicts or political unrest in recent years. Externally, Grenada maintains friendly relations with its neighboring countries and has been actively involved in regional organizations such as the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). The main actors involved in Grenada’s geopolitical landscape are its government, regional organizations, and international partners. Given the absence of internal and external conflicts, the threat level assessment for Grenada is unlikely to escalate.

    Guatemala 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Guatemala has experienced internal conflicts stemming from its history of civil war and political instability. The country has struggled with issues such as poverty, inequality, and corruption, leading to social unrest and protests. The main actors involved in these internal conflicts include the government, indigenous communities, and various civil society groups. Externally, Guatemala has faced tensions with neighboring countries, particularly Belize, over territorial disputes and issues related to drug trafficking. The implications for the region include potential destabilization and the risk of spillover effects, such as increased migration and drug-related violence. The threat level assessment for Guatemala is likely, as the country continues to grapple with internal and external challenges that have the potential to escalate.

    Guinea 2022

    Total Deaths96
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths96

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    Aiyala vs Nomali
    Kuboma vs Kulumata

    Conflict Summary:

    Guinea is currently experiencing a non-territorial conflict between the Aiyala and Nomali ethnic groups, as well as the Kuboma and Kulumata ethnic groups. These conflicts have resulted in tensions and occasional violence between the communities. The main actors involved are the ethnic groups themselves, who are vying for control and resources in the region. The implications for the region include potential destabilization, displacement of populations, and a risk of further ethnic tensions spreading to neighboring countries. The threat level assessment for these conflicts is likely, as the underlying issues and grievances between the ethnic groups are deep-rooted and have the potential to escalate if not addressed effectively.

    Guinea-Bissau 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Guinea-Bissau has experienced political instability and internal conflicts since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974. The country has faced several military coups and power struggles, with the military often playing a significant role in politics. The main internal conflict revolves around power struggles between political factions and the military, leading to frequent changes in government and a lack of stability.

    Externally, Guinea-Bissau has been a transit point for drug trafficking, particularly cocaine smuggling from South America to Europe. This has led to the infiltration of drug cartels and organized crime groups, exacerbating the country’s instability and corruption. The involvement of these criminal networks has further complicated the political situation and hindered efforts to establish effective governance.

    The main actors involved in Guinea-Bissau’s conflicts include political parties, military factions, drug cartels, and international actors seeking to combat drug trafficking. The implications for the region are significant, as the country’s instability and drug trafficking have contributed to regional insecurity and the spread of organized crime. The lack of effective governance and the presence of criminal networks also hinder development and economic growth in the region.

    The threat level assessment for Guinea-Bissau is high. The country’s internal conflicts, power struggles, and involvement in drug trafficking pose significant challenges to stability and security. The presence of organized crime groups and the potential for violence and political instability make it likely that the situation could escalate further, with implications for the region as a whole.

    Guyana 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Guyana is a South American country with a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, the main conflict revolves around territorial disputes with Venezuela over the Essequibo region, which has been ongoing for decades. The main actors involved in this dispute are the governments of Guyana and Venezuela, with both countries claiming sovereignty over the area. This conflict has implications for the region as it hampers economic development and can potentially escalate tensions between the two nations. However, the threat level assessment for this conflict is currently unlikely to escalate to a full-scale war, as both countries have shown a willingness to engage in diplomatic negotiations and seek peaceful resolutions.

    Haiti 2022

    Total Deaths235
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths104
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths131

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: 400 Mawozo , G9 an Fanmi e Alye

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    G9 an Fanmi e Alye vs G Pep
    400 Mawozo vs Torcel

    Conflict Summary:

    Haiti is currently facing a complex geopolitical situation with both internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country is grappling with political instability, economic challenges, and social unrest. The main actors involved in the internal conflicts are the government, opposition groups, and various factions within society. Externally, Haiti has been dealing with the aftermath of natural disasters and the influence of international actors, such as the United Nations and foreign aid organizations.

    The key internal conflict revolves around the struggle for political power and governance. The government and opposition groups have been engaged in a power struggle, leading to protests, violence, and calls for the resignation of the president. This internal conflict has implications for the region as it can potentially destabilize neighboring countries and create a refugee crisis.

    Another internal conflict is the socio-economic inequality and poverty that has fueled social unrest. The lack of basic services, high unemployment rates, and corruption have contributed to widespread discontent among the population. This conflict has the potential to escalate if not addressed effectively, leading to further social unrest and potential violence.

    Externally, Haiti has been heavily dependent on foreign aid and assistance, particularly after natural disasters such as the devastating earthquake in 2010. The presence of international actors, while providing much-needed support, also brings challenges in terms of coordination, accountability, and potential interference in domestic affairs.

    The threat level assessment for Haiti is high. The combination of internal conflicts, political instability, economic challenges, and external influences creates a volatile environment. The potential for escalation is significant, especially if the political power struggle intensifies or if socio-economic conditions worsen. The implications of a further deterioration of the situation in Haiti could have far-reaching consequences for the region, including increased migration, humanitarian crises, and potential spillover of violence.

    Honduras 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Honduras has experienced significant internal conflicts in recent years, including political instability and high levels of violence. The country faced a political crisis in 2009 when the president was ousted in a coup, leading to widespread protests and divisions within the society. Additionally, Honduras has been plagued by drug trafficking and gang violence, with powerful criminal organizations exerting influence over certain regions. Externally, Honduras has faced tensions with neighboring countries, particularly Nicaragua, over territorial disputes and maritime boundaries. These conflicts have implications for the region, as they contribute to instability and pose challenges for regional cooperation. The threat level assessment for Honduras would be considered high, as the combination of internal conflicts, violence, and external tensions create a volatile situation that could potentially escalate.

    Hong Kong 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Hong Kong is a Special Administrative Region of China, with a unique political and legal system. In recent years, the region has experienced significant internal conflicts related to demands for greater democratic rights and autonomy. Protests erupted in 2019 against a proposed extradition bill, leading to clashes between pro-democracy activists and the government. The main actors involved in these conflicts are the Hong Kong government, pro-democracy activists, and the central Chinese government. The implications for the region include potential erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy and the impact on China’s relations with other countries. The threat level assessment is high, as the situation remains volatile and could escalate further.

    Hungary 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Hungary is a landlocked country located in Central Europe. Internally, Hungary has not experienced any significant conflicts in recent years. However, there have been some political tensions within the country, particularly regarding issues such as migration and the erosion of democratic institutions. Externally, Hungary has been involved in disputes with neighboring countries, particularly over historical and territorial issues. The main actors involved in these conflicts include Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Ukraine. While the conflicts have not escalated to a significant level, there is a potential for increased tensions and occasional diplomatic disputes. The general threat level assessment for Hungary is unlikely to escalate, but it is important to monitor the situation closely due to the potential for sporadic conflicts.

    Iceland 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Iceland is known for its peaceful and stable geopolitical situation. Internally, the country has no significant conflicts or tensions. Externally, Iceland maintains friendly relations with its neighboring countries and is a member of NATO. The main actors involved in Iceland’s geopolitical landscape are the government, which focuses on maintaining its sovereignty and promoting economic development, and international organizations such as NATO, which ensure the country’s security. The absence of internal and external conflicts, along with Iceland’s strong diplomatic ties, suggests a low threat level assessment, with the likelihood of escalation being unlikely.

    India 2022

    Total Deaths358
    Battle Related Deaths310
    Targeted Civilian Deaths48
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of India vs CPI-Maoist
    Government of India vs Kashmir insurgents

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: CPI-Maoist

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    India is currently facing two key internal conflicts: one with the CPI-Maoist and another with Kashmir insurgents. The Government of India is engaged in both conflicts, with the CPI-Maoist being the primary adversary in the central and eastern parts of the country, while the Kashmir insurgency is concentrated in the region of Jammu and Kashmir. The CPI-Maoist conflict has been ongoing for several decades and is rooted in socio-economic grievances, while the Kashmir insurgency is driven by a combination of separatist aspirations and religious factors. These conflicts have significant implications for the region, including the loss of lives, displacement of populations, and hindrance to economic development. The threat level assessment for these conflicts is high, as they have the potential to escalate and pose challenges to India’s internal security and stability.

    Indonesia 2022

    Total Deaths46
    Battle Related Deaths46
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Indonesia vs OPM

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Indonesia is currently facing an internal conflict with the separatist group, the Free Papua Movement (OPM), in the region of West Papua. The Indonesian government has been engaged in a long-standing struggle to maintain control over the resource-rich province, which has been seeking independence. The main actors involved in this conflict are the Government of Indonesia and the OPM, with occasional involvement from international human rights organizations. The implications for the region include potential destabilization, human rights concerns, and the risk of violence escalating. The threat level assessment for this conflict is high, as tensions remain high and the potential for further violence and unrest is significant.

    Iran 2022

    Total Deaths398
    Battle Related Deaths55
    Targeted Civilian Deaths343
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Government of Iran

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Iran is currently facing several internal and external conflicts that have significant implications for the region. Internally, the country is grappling with political and social unrest, as well as economic challenges. The government of Iran, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, faces opposition from various domestic actors, including reformists and pro-democracy activists. Externally, Iran is involved in conflicts with regional powers, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as tensions with the United States.

    The main actors involved in these conflicts include Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States. Iran’s support for proxy groups in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, has fueled tensions with Saudi Arabia and Israel. Additionally, Iran’s nuclear program and its alleged support for terrorism have strained its relations with the United States.

    The implications of these conflicts are significant for the region. The ongoing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have fueled sectarian divisions and proxy wars in countries like Yemen and Lebanon. The conflict between Iran and Israel has the potential to escalate into a full-scale military confrontation, with implications for regional stability. The strained relations between Iran and the United States have led to economic sanctions and increased military presence in the region, raising the risk of a direct military confrontation.

    The threat level assessment for the geopolitical situation in Iran is high. The conflicts and tensions involving Iran have the potential to escalate into larger-scale conflicts, with severe consequences for the region. The involvement of major regional and global powers further complicates the situation and increases the risk of escalation. It is crucial for diplomatic efforts and dialogue to be pursued to mitigate the risks and find peaceful resolutions to these conflicts.

    Iraq 2022

    Total Deaths4118
    Battle Related Deaths335
    Targeted Civilian Deaths3783
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Iraq vs IS

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Iraq has been grappling with a complex geopolitical situation marked by both internal and external conflicts. Internally, the main conflict has been between the Government of Iraq and the Islamic State (IS), which has sought to establish a caliphate in the country. This conflict has resulted in significant territorial losses for the Iraqi government and has required international support to combat IS. Externally, Iraq has faced tensions with neighboring countries, particularly Iran and Turkey, which have sought to exert influence and protect their own interests in the region.

    The main actors involved in the internal conflict are the Government of Iraq and IS. The government has received support from various international actors, including the United States and other Western countries, as well as regional powers such as Iran. On the other hand, IS has attracted foreign fighters and has been able to exploit sectarian tensions within Iraq to gain support.

    The implications of this conflict for the region are significant. The rise of IS has destabilized Iraq and has had spillover effects, including the displacement of millions of people and the exacerbation of sectarian tensions. The conflict has also had regional implications, with neighboring countries being directly affected by the influx of refugees and the potential for the spread of extremism. Additionally, the involvement of international actors in the conflict has further complicated the situation and raised concerns about regional power dynamics.

    The threat level assessment for Iraq is high. While the territorial control of IS has significantly diminished, the group still poses a threat through its insurgent activities and ability to carry out terrorist attacks. The underlying sectarian tensions and political instability in Iraq also contribute to the potential for further conflict. Additionally, the involvement of external actors and their competing interests in the region adds to the complexity and volatility of the situation.

    Ireland 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Ireland has a relatively stable geopolitical situation with no major internal or external conflicts. The country has a long history of conflict with Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, but the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 brought peace to the region. The main actors involved in this conflict were the Irish Republican Army (IRA), the British government, and political parties from both sides. The resolution of this conflict has had positive implications for the region, fostering cooperation and stability. The threat level assessment for Ireland is unlikely to escalate, as the country has successfully managed to maintain peace and resolve its internal conflicts.

    Isle of Man 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The Isle of Man is a self-governing British Crown dependency located in the Irish Sea. It has a stable political environment with no significant internal conflicts. However, being a disputed territory between the United Kingdom and Ireland, it has been a subject of historical tensions between the two countries. The main actors involved in this geopolitical situation are the governments of the United Kingdom and Ireland, as well as the local government of the Isle of Man.

    The implications for the region primarily revolve around the ongoing dispute between the UK and Ireland over the sovereignty of the Isle of Man. While the conflict has not escalated into violence in recent times, it remains a potential source of tension between the two countries. The Isle of Man’s status as a tax haven also adds another layer of complexity to its geopolitical situation, as it attracts international attention and scrutiny.

    Overall, the threat level assessment for the Isle of Man is unlikely to escalate into a violent conflict. The dispute over sovereignty is primarily a political and diplomatic issue, and both the UK and Ireland have shown a commitment to resolving conflicts through peaceful means. However, the situation should continue to be monitored due to the potential for increased tensions and international pressure related to the Isle of Man’s tax haven status.

    Israel 2022

    Total Deaths139
    Battle Related Deaths139
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Israel vs Fatah
    Government of Israel vs PIJ

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Since its establishment in 1948, Israel has been central to Middle Eastern conflict, primarily over its recognized or occupied territories. Post World War I, the British mandate over Palestine, a consequence of the Allied victory over the Ottoman Empire, led to the 1917 Balfour Declaration endorsing a Jewish homeland in Palestine. The UN decision in 1948 divided this mandate into Israeli and Palestinian entities, establishing the state of Israel, while the Palestinian territory largely fell under Jordanian control. The creation of Israel was met with opposition from neighboring Arab countries, prompting an attack on Israel in 1948 by Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq. This was followed by subsequent interstate conflicts in 1956, 1967, 1969-1970, and 1973 over issues like the status of the Suez canal and territorial disputes. These events have significantly shaped the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East.

    Following the interstate conflicts during its early decades as a state, Israel was able to occupy or annex part of the territories of the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, the Golan Heights, and southern Lebanon. The annexations eventually led to intrastate conflicts with Israel confronting non-state groups such as Hamas, Fatah, PLO, Hezbollah, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Several peace agreements have been signed between the warring parties throughout the years. Nevertheless, the state-based conflict over Palestine seems to be far from reaching an end.

    Several actors, including the Government of Israel, have also been active in the one-sided category of organized violence.

    The year 2022 saw a decrease in organized violence in Israel and the Palestinian territories, resembling levels from 2018-2019. The state-based conflict involving the Israeli Government, Fatah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad remained active. Attempts to establish new Israeli settlements sparked violent clashes with Palestinian protesters, and lone-wolf attacks targeted Israeli security forces. The interstate conflict with Iran persisted in Syria, though its intensity lessened.

    Israel, after annexing parts of Gaza, the West Bank, the Golan Heights, and southern Lebanon, engaged in intrastate conflicts with non-state entities like Hamas, Fatah, the PLO, Hezbollah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Although peace agreements have been signed, the conflict over Palestine continues. One-sided organized violence involved both Palestinian and Lebanese militants and the Israeli government. Intra-Palestinian conflicts also occurred, such as between Hamas and Fatah, and Hamas and Jund Ansar Allah.

    Italy 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Italy is currently experiencing a relatively stable geopolitical situation with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces. Internally, the country faces challenges such as political polarization, economic disparities, and organized crime. The main actors involved in these internal conflicts include political parties, social movements, and criminal organizations. Externally, Italy has been involved in various diplomatic and economic disputes, particularly within the European Union, regarding issues such as migration, trade, and fiscal policies. While the threat level assessment for Italy is generally unlikely to escalate, it is important to monitor the potential impact of internal and external conflicts on the country’s stability and regional dynamics.

    Jamaica 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Jamaica is a Caribbean island nation that has not experienced significant internal or external conflicts in recent years. The country has a stable political system and a relatively low level of violence compared to some other countries in the region. However, Jamaica faces challenges related to organized crime, drug trafficking, and gang violence, which have implications for the country’s security and social stability. The main actors involved in these conflicts are criminal organizations, local gangs, and law enforcement agencies. While the threat level is not considered high, the ongoing issues related to crime and violence require continued attention and efforts to maintain stability.

    Japan 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Japan is a country known for its stable geopolitical situation, with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces according to UCDP data. Internally, Japan faces challenges such as an aging population, economic stagnation, and territorial disputes with neighboring countries like China and South Korea over islands in the East China Sea. Externally, Japan maintains strong alliances with the United States and has been increasing its military capabilities in response to regional security concerns, particularly North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. The main actors involved in these conflicts are Japan, China, South Korea, and the United States. Overall, the threat level assessment for Japan is unlikely to escalate, as the country prioritizes peaceful resolution of conflicts and maintains a defensive military posture.

    Jordan 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Jordan is a non-territorial country located in the Middle East. Internally, it faces challenges related to political stability and economic development. The main external conflict revolves around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as Jordan has a significant Palestinian population and shares a border with the West Bank. Jordan also faces security concerns due to the ongoing conflicts in neighboring Syria and Iraq, which have resulted in an influx of refugees. The main actors involved in these conflicts include Israel, Palestine, Syria, Iraq, and various non-state actors. The implications for the region include potential spillover of violence, increased refugee flows, and strained resources. The threat level assessment for Jordan is likely, as the country is vulnerable to regional instability and its internal challenges could exacerbate the situation.

    Kazakhstan 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Kazakhstan, in Central Asia, has retained stability despite internal political and human rights challenges, and has maintained positive international relationships. After President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s three-decade rule ended in 2019, the peaceful power transition was a notable event, but concerns about political pluralism and freedom of expression persist. Kazakhstan, with its ethnically diverse population, plays a crucial role in regional organizations like the Eurasian Economic Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, even mediating in regional conflicts like the one in Kyrgyzstan. Despite the country’s overall stability and diplomacy contributing to peace, unresolved issues related to political representation and human rights may pose future threats.

    Kenya 2022

    Total Deaths160
    Battle Related Deaths72
    Targeted Civilian Deaths88
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Kenya vs Al-Shabaab

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Al-Shabaab

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Kenya faces several key internal and external conflicts. Internally, the Government of Kenya is engaged in a long-standing battle against the extremist group Al-Shabaab, primarily in the Northeastern Province and Coast regions. Al-Shabaab poses a significant threat to Kenya’s security and stability, frequently carrying out attacks targeting civilians and security forces. Externally, Kenya is also affected by the ongoing conflict in neighboring Somalia, where Al-Shabaab is based. The group’s cross-border activities and recruitment efforts in Kenya further exacerbate the security situation. These conflicts have implications for the region, as they contribute to the overall instability in East Africa and pose a risk of spillover into neighboring countries. The threat level assessment for Kenya is considered high, as the conflict with Al-Shabaab remains persistent and the group continues to demonstrate its ability to carry out attacks.

    Kuwait 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Kuwait, a small Middle Eastern country bordered by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, maintains a stable political system under a constitutional monarchy. Internal challenges persist, such as restricted political participation and freedom of speech. Externally, historical tensions with Iraq, most notably the 1990 Iraqi invasion leading to the Gulf War, have significantly shaped Kuwait’s foreign relations. The primary actors in this conflict were Kuwait, Iraq, and a U.S.-led international coalition.

    In the present, Kuwait is actively working on rebuilding diplomatic relations with Iraq, focusing on resolving border disputes. Kuwait’s role in regional initiatives, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), highlights its commitment to regional cooperation.

    As for the threat level assessment, the potential for a major conflict involving Kuwait is generally low, given its enhanced defense measures and ongoing diplomatic relations with neighboring countries. Nevertheless, the Middle East’s geopolitical dynamics and regional tensions always carry a degree of risk, necessitating continued vigilance and engagement in regional security initiatives from Kuwait.

    Kyrgyzstan 2022

    Total Deaths152
    Battle Related Deaths152
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Kyrgyzstan is a landlocked country in Central Asia that has experienced both internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country has faced political instability and ethnic tensions, particularly between the Kyrgyz majority and Uzbek minority. In 2010, violent clashes erupted between these groups, resulting in hundreds of deaths and displacements. Externally, Kyrgyzstan has been affected by the spillover of conflicts from neighboring Afghanistan and Tajikistan, including the presence of extremist groups and drug trafficking.

    The year 2022 saw the continuation of interstate conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with an alarming escalation in September resulting in over 100 fatalities, making it the deadliest month in over two decades. Notably, the Kyrgyz side suffered 64 casualties. Following the September confrontations, both parties agreed to a ceasefire, which has mostly been respected, despite allegations of border shelling. Later in September, both sides agreed to withdraw troops from the border and committed to ongoing dialogue, with all fatal clashes in Kyrgyzstan occurring in Batken oblast, as was the case in 2021.

    The implications of these conflicts for the region are significant. The internal tensions and political instability in Kyrgyzstan have the potential to spill over into neighboring countries, exacerbating ethnic divisions and creating security challenges. The presence of extremist groups and drug trafficking networks also poses a threat to regional stability. Additionally, the geopolitical competition between major powers in Central Asia adds another layer of complexity to the situation.

    Laos 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Laos, a Southeast Asian country, maintains relative geopolitical stability despite internal issues, such as government control and suppression of political dissent, mainly by the ruling Communist Party, which faces opposition from pro-democracy and human rights groups. Externally, Laos has been entangled in territorial disagreements with its neighbors, notably Cambodia and Vietnam. Though the implications for the region are currently minimal due to Laos’s generally peaceful relations with its neighbors, ongoing political suppression and human rights issues could strain ties with countries prioritizing these values. In summary, while Laos’s internal conflicts persist, they do not currently pose a significant threat to the country’s or region’s stability, but ongoing monitoring is crucial to prevent potential escalation.

    Latvia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Latvia is a small Baltic country located in Northeastern Europe. Internally, Latvia has not experienced any significant conflicts in recent years. However, it faces some internal challenges related to ethnic tensions between the Latvian majority and the Russian-speaking minority, particularly in the eastern regions. Externally, Latvia is concerned about Russia’s assertive actions in the region, including its annexation of Crimea and ongoing support for separatist movements in Ukraine. The main actors involved in the geopolitical situation of Latvia are the Latvian government, the Russian government, and NATO, which has a significant presence in the country. The implications for the region include the potential for increased tensions between Russia and NATO, as well as the need for Latvia to maintain its security and sovereignty. The general threat level assessment for Latvia is likely, given the ongoing geopolitical dynamics in the region.

    Lebanon 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Despite the absence of conflict death, Lebanon’s intricate geopolitical dynamics, influenced by internal and external tensions, contribute to its volatile situation. The country grapples with internal sectarian disputes, primarily between Sunni and Shia groups, resulting in intermittent violence and political instability. Influential regional powers, notably Iran and Saudi Arabia, have also played a significant role externally, backing different factions within the nation. Key actors in Lebanon’s conflicts include the influential Shia militant group Hezbollah, supported by Iran, and diverse Sunni and Christian political factions.

    Furthermore, Lebanon has hosted a considerable number of Syrian refugees due to the ongoing conflict in Syria, which adds another layer of complexity and potential tension to the country’s delicate sociopolitical fabric. The presence of these refugees can influence the threat level of Lebanon by potentially straining resources, escalating socioeconomic issues, and causing tensions with local communities, which in turn could potentially lead to unrest or conflict.

    With Lebanon’s internal divisions often impacting neighboring countries, the nation acts as a stage for regional power struggle, thereby further destabilizing the area. Hence, there is a potential threat for escalation due to its susceptibility to political and sectarian violence, with potential regional implications.

    Lesotho 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Lesotho is a landlocked country in southern Africa that has experienced political instability and internal conflicts. One of the key internal conflicts is the power struggle between different political factions, leading to frequent changes in government and a lack of stability. The main actors involved in this conflict are the ruling party and opposition parties. Externally, Lesotho has faced tensions with its neighbor, South Africa, particularly regarding issues of water resources and border disputes. These conflicts have implications for the region as they can disrupt regional stability and hinder economic development. The threat level assessment for Lesotho is likely, as the internal and external conflicts have the potential to escalate and further destabilize the country and the region.

    Liberia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Despite the current abaence of conflict-deaths, Liberia has experienced significant internal conflicts in the past, including a brutal civil war that lasted from 1989 to 2003. The main actors involved in this conflict were various rebel groups, government forces, and regional powers. The war resulted in the loss of thousands of lives and widespread destruction, leaving the country in a state of political and economic instability.

    Externally, Liberia has faced tensions with neighboring countries, particularly Sierra Leone and Guinea, due to cross-border conflicts and the spillover effects of their own civil wars. These conflicts have often involved the illegal trade of natural resources, such as diamonds and timber, exacerbating regional instability.

    The implications of these conflicts for the region have been significant, as they have contributed to the destabilization of neighboring countries and the displacement of populations. Additionally, the illicit trade of natural resources has fueled corruption and hindered economic development in the region.

    The threat level assessment for Liberia is currently unlikely to escalate, as the country has made progress in terms of peacebuilding and democratic governance since the end of the civil war. However, the underlying issues of poverty, corruption, and weak institutions still pose challenges to long-term stability, and there is a need for continued international support to address these issues and prevent any potential resurgence of conflict.

    Libya 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Libya is currently facing a complex geopolitical situation characterized by internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country is divided between the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli and the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar, which controls the eastern part of the country. The conflict between these two factions has resulted in a power struggle and ongoing violence. Externally, various regional and international actors are involved, with countries like Turkey and Qatar supporting the GNA, while Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia back the LNA.

    The implications of this conflict for the region are significant. The ongoing violence has led to a humanitarian crisis, with thousands of people displaced and basic services severely disrupted. The conflict has also allowed extremist groups, such as ISIS, to exploit the power vacuum and gain a foothold in the country. Additionally, the situation in Libya has become a proxy battleground for regional powers, exacerbating tensions and rivalries in the broader Middle East.

    The threat level assessment for Libya is high. The conflict has persisted for years with no clear resolution in sight. The involvement of multiple external actors with competing interests further complicates the situation and increases the likelihood of escalation. The potential for further violence, humanitarian suffering, and the spread of extremism remains a significant concern for the region.

    Liechtenstein 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Liechtenstein is a small landlocked country located between Switzerland and Austria. It has a stable political system and has not been involved in any significant internal or external conflicts. The country maintains a policy of neutrality and has no standing army. Liechtenstein has strong economic ties with Switzerland and is a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and the Schengen Agreement. Given its peaceful history, lack of conflicts, and neutral stance, the threat level for Liechtenstein is assessed as unlikely to escalate.

    Lithuania 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Lithuania, a Baltic country located in Northeastern Europe, has enjoyed relative stability since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1990. Internally, Lithuania has faced challenges related to ethnic tensions, particularly with its large Russian minority. However, these tensions have not escalated into significant conflicts. Externally, Lithuania has been concerned about Russia’s assertive actions in the region, particularly its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and ongoing military presence in neighboring Belarus. The main actors involved in the geopolitical situation of Lithuania include the Lithuanian government, Russia, and NATO, of which Lithuania is a member. The implications for the region include heightened security concerns and the need for continued support from NATO to deter potential aggression. The threat level assessment for Lithuania is likely, given the ongoing tensions with Russia and the potential for regional instability.

    Luxembourg 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Luxembourg is a small landlocked country in Western Europe known for its political stability and neutrality. It has no significant internal conflicts or external disputes with neighboring countries. The main actors involved in Luxembourg’s geopolitical situation are its government and international organizations such as the European Union and NATO, of which it is a member. As a financial hub and host to many international institutions, Luxembourg plays a crucial role in the region’s economy and diplomacy. The threat level assessment for Luxembourg is generally considered to be unlikely to escalate, given its peaceful history and diplomatic approach to international relations.

    Madagascar 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Madagascar has experienced political instability and internal conflicts since gaining independence in 1960. The country has witnessed several coups and power struggles, with the most recent one occurring in 2009 when President Marc Ravalomanana was ousted. This led to a power vacuum and a prolonged political crisis, with multiple factions vying for control. The main actors involved in the internal conflicts include political leaders, military factions, and various interest groups.

    Externally, Madagascar has faced tensions with neighboring countries, particularly France and Comoros, over territorial disputes and fishing rights in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, there have been concerns about illegal trafficking of natural resources, such as rosewood and vanilla, which has strained relations with international partners.

    The implications of these conflicts for the region are primarily economic and political. The political instability and power struggles have hindered development and investment in Madagascar, leading to widespread poverty and social unrest. The territorial disputes and illegal trafficking have also strained regional cooperation and stability.

    In terms of threat level assessment, the situation in Madagascar is currently unlikely to escalate to a large-scale conflict. However, the country’s history of political instability and the presence of various factions indicate that the potential for localized violence and unrest remains. The resolution of internal conflicts and the improvement of governance will be crucial in reducing the threat level and promoting stability in the region.

    Malawi 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Malawi is a landlocked country in southeastern Africa that has experienced relative political stability since gaining independence in 1964. Internally, the country has faced challenges related to poverty, corruption, and governance issues. However, it has largely avoided major internal conflicts or violent political upheavals. Externally, Malawi has maintained peaceful relations with its neighboring countries and has actively participated in regional organizations such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The main actors involved in the country’s geopolitical situation include the government, civil society organizations, and regional partners. Overall, the threat level assessment for Malawi is unlikely to escalate, as the country has demonstrated a commitment to peaceful coexistence and regional cooperation.

    Malaysia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Malaysia is a Southeast Asian country with a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, the main conflict revolves around ethnic and religious tensions between the Malay majority and the Chinese and Indian minorities. The government has implemented policies to promote national unity, but occasional incidents of discrimination and political polarization persist. Externally, Malaysia has territorial disputes with neighboring countries, particularly over maritime boundaries in the South China Sea. The main actors involved in these disputes are China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia. While tensions in Malaysia are generally unlikely to escalate into major conflicts, the territorial disputes in the region pose a potential risk for increased tensions and require ongoing diplomatic efforts to maintain stability.

    Maldives 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The Maldives is a small island nation located in the Indian Ocean. Internally, the country has experienced political instability and power struggles between different factions. In 2018, a state of emergency was declared by the government, leading to the arrest of opposition leaders and a crackdown on dissent. Externally, the Maldives has faced tensions with neighboring countries, particularly India and China, due to geopolitical interests and competition for influence in the region. The main actors involved in these conflicts include the government, opposition groups, and foreign powers. The threat level assessment for the Maldives is currently unlikely to escalate, but the situation remains fragile and could potentially escalate if political tensions and external pressures intensify.

    Mali 2022

    Total Deaths9806
    Battle Related Deaths4470
    Targeted Civilian Deaths4546
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths790

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Mali vs JNIM
    Government of Mali vs IS

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS, JNIM, Government of Mali

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    IS vs JNIM
    Dozos (Mali) vs JNIM
    Click for more

    Conflict Summary:

    Mali is currently facing internal and external conflicts that have significant implications for the region. Internally, the Government of Mali is engaged in battles against two main jihadist groups, JNIM and IS, which are non-territorial and have an internationalized intrastate presence. These groups pose a threat to the stability and security of Mali. Externally, the conflict has spilled over into neighboring Burkina Faso, further exacerbating the regional security situation.

    The main actors involved in the conflicts are the Government of Mali, JNIM, and IS. The Government of Mali is fighting to maintain control and stability within its borders, while JNIM and IS seek to establish their influence and impose their extremist ideologies. The conflicts have also involved other actors such as Dozos (Mali), GATIA, MSA, and Dan na Ambassagou, who are engaged in various clashes with JNIM and IS.

    The implications of these conflicts are far-reaching. The presence of jihadist groups in Mali and their expansion into neighboring countries pose a threat to regional security and stability. The conflicts have led to displacement, humanitarian crises, and a weakening of state institutions. Additionally, the presence of extremist groups in the region has the potential to attract and inspire other terrorist organizations, further escalating the threat level.

    The threat level assessment for the geopolitical situation in Mali is high. The conflicts involving jihadist groups, the involvement of multiple actors, and the potential for regional spillover make it likely that the situation could escalate further. The international community should continue to support the Government of Mali in its efforts to combat terrorism and address the root causes of the conflicts to prevent further destabilization in the region.

    Malta 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Malta is a small island nation located in the Mediterranean Sea. It has a stable geopolitical situation with no significant internal or external conflicts. The country has a democratic system of government and maintains good relations with its neighboring countries. The main actors involved in Malta’s geopolitical landscape are the government, which focuses on maintaining stability and promoting economic growth, and the European Union, of which Malta is a member state. The absence of conflicts and the country’s commitment to diplomacy and cooperation suggest a low threat level assessment, with the likelihood of escalation being unlikely.

    Mauritania 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Mauritania is a country located in Northwest Africa, bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the west and several countries including Mali and Senegal. Internally, the key conflict in Mauritania is the issue of slavery, which persists despite being officially abolished. This has led to tensions between different ethnic groups and social classes within the country. Externally, Mauritania has faced challenges from extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Boko Haram, which have carried out attacks in the region.

    The main actors involved in the internal conflict are the government, which has been criticized for not doing enough to address the issue of slavery, and various human rights organizations advocating for its eradication. The ethnic groups affected by slavery, such as the Haratine and Afro-Mauritanians, are also key actors in this conflict. In terms of external conflicts, Mauritania has cooperated with neighboring countries and international partners to combat extremist groups, with the support of France and the United States.

    The implications of these conflicts for the region are significant. The persistence of slavery and tensions between ethnic groups pose a threat to stability within Mauritania, potentially leading to social unrest and violence. The presence of extremist groups in the region also poses a security risk, as they can carry out attacks not only in Mauritania but also in neighboring countries. The threat level assessment for Mauritania would be considered high, as the internal and external conflicts have the potential to escalate and destabilize the region.

    Mauritius 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Mauritius is a small island nation located in the Indian Ocean. It has a stable political environment with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces, according to UCDP data. Internally, the country has experienced some social and economic challenges, including income inequality and unemployment, but these have not escalated into significant conflicts. Externally, Mauritius has ongoing territorial disputes with the United Kingdom over the sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago, which has implications for the region’s geopolitical dynamics. Overall, the threat level assessment for Mauritius is unlikely to escalate, as the country has a history of peaceful relations and a focus on economic development.

    Mayotte 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Mayotte, an overseas French region in the Indian Ocean, is claimed by Comoros, causing tensions between the two countries and involving France, Comoros, and Mayotte’s local population. Internally, Mayotte grapples with challenges from illegal immigration, predominantly from Comoros, leading to social tensions and protests against stringent immigration policies. This dispute and social issues have implications for regional relationships and could potentially spark larger conflicts, despite intervention attempts by the African Union and other regional bodies. Overall, while the threat level for Mayotte is not likely to escalate into a full-scale conflict, ongoing immigration issues and social inequality could prompt further unrest.

    Mexico 2022

    Total Deaths14212
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths85
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths14127

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Jalisco Cartel New Generation, Los Ardillos, Sinaloa Cartel

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    Juarez Cartel vs Sinaloa Cartel
    Los Ardillos vs Los Tlacos
    Click for more

    Conflict Summary:

    Mexico is currently facing a complex geopolitical situation characterized by internal conflicts between various drug cartels and criminal organizations. The key internal conflicts include the ongoing rivalry between the Jalisco Cartel New Generation and the Sinaloa Cartel, as well as clashes between Los Ardillos and Los Tlacos. Additionally, there are conflicts between the Gulf Cartel and the Jalisco Cartel New Generation, and between the Jalisco Cartel New Generation and other smaller cartels such as Nueva Plaza Cartel and Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel. These conflicts have resulted in high levels of violence and insecurity in the country.

    The main actors involved in these conflicts are the Jalisco Cartel New Generation, the Sinaloa Cartel, and Los Ardillos. These cartels are engaged in a power struggle for control over drug trafficking routes and other criminal activities. The implications of these conflicts are far-reaching, not only for Mexico but also for the wider region. The violence and instability caused by these conflicts have had a negative impact on the Mexican economy, tourism, and governance. Additionally, the cartels’ activities have contributed to the flow of drugs and weapons across borders, fueling violence and organized crime in neighboring countries.

    The threat level assessment for Mexico is high. The ongoing conflicts between the cartels and criminal organizations pose a significant threat to the security and stability of the country. The violence and insecurity resulting from these conflicts have had a profound impact on the lives of Mexican citizens and have strained the capacity of the government to effectively address the situation. Furthermore, the transnational nature of these criminal activities and their impact on neighboring countries make it likely that the conflicts could escalate further and have broader regional implications.

    Moldova 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Moldova is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe that has been facing several internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country has been dealing with a separatist movement in the region of Transnistria, which declared independence in 1990. This has led to a frozen conflict between Moldova and Transnistria, with Russia being a key actor supporting the separatist region. Externally, Moldova has been caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war between Russia and the European Union, with both sides vying for influence in the country. This has resulted in political instability and a divided society. The implications for the region are significant, as Moldova’s unresolved conflicts and political instability could potentially spill over into neighboring countries. The threat level assessment for Moldova is likely, as the unresolved conflicts and competing interests of external actors make it susceptible to further escalation.

    Monaco 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Monaco, a small city-state located on the French Riviera, has a stable geopolitical situation with no significant internal or external conflicts. As a constitutional monarchy, the main actors involved in the country’s governance are the ruling Prince and the elected government. Monaco maintains friendly relations with neighboring France and has strong economic ties with the European Union. The absence of conflicts and the country’s focus on tourism and finance contribute to a low threat level assessment, with Monaco being unlikely to experience any significant escalation or threats in the near future.

    Mongolia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Mongolia is a landlocked country located between China and Russia, with a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, Mongolia has experienced some political tensions and protests related to corruption and economic inequality, but these conflicts have not escalated into major violence or armed conflicts. Externally, Mongolia maintains friendly relations with both China and Russia, although there have been occasional disputes over border issues. The main actors involved in Mongolia’s geopolitical situation are the Mongolian government, China, and Russia. Overall, the threat level assessment for Mongolia is unlikely to escalate, as the country has managed to maintain peaceful relations with its neighbors and has a relatively stable internal political environment.

    Montenegro 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Montenegro is a small Balkan country that has largely avoided internal conflicts since gaining independence in 2006. However, it faces some challenges related to ethnic tensions between the Montenegrin majority and the Serbian minority. The main actor involved in this internal conflict is the Democratic Front, a political alliance representing the Serbian minority, which has been pushing for closer ties with Serbia. Externally, Montenegro has faced tensions with Russia due to its NATO membership and its aspirations to join the European Union. These tensions have resulted in cyberattacks and alleged interference in Montenegro’s political processes. Overall, the threat level assessment for Montenegro is unlikely to escalate, but it is important to monitor the situation closely due to the potential for ethnic tensions and external interference.

    Morocco 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Morocco is a country located in North Africa with a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, the main conflict revolves around the issue of Western Sahara, a disputed territory claimed by both Morocco and the Polisario Front, a Sahrawi independence movement. This conflict has led to occasional tensions and sporadic violence in the region. Externally, Morocco maintains a strong relationship with its Western allies, particularly the United States and France, which provide diplomatic and military support.

    The main actors involved in the Western Sahara conflict are Morocco, the Polisario Front, and neighboring countries such as Algeria, which supports the Sahrawi cause. The conflict has implications for the region as it hampers regional integration efforts and creates occasional diplomatic tensions between Morocco and Algeria. However, the conflict is unlikely to escalate into a full-scale war due to international pressure and the presence of a UN peacekeeping mission in the area.

    In terms of threat level assessment, the situation in Morocco is generally considered unlikely to escalate. While the Western Sahara conflict remains unresolved, it has not escalated into a major regional conflict. The presence of international actors and diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful solution mitigate the risk of escalation. However, occasional flare-ups and localized violence cannot be ruled out entirely.

    Mozambique 2022

    Total Deaths4181
    Battle Related Deaths373
    Targeted Civilian Deaths3783
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths25

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Mozambique vs IS

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    IS vs Naparama

    Conflict Summary:

    Mozambique is currently facing a complex geopolitical situation with both internal and external conflicts. Internally, the government of Mozambique is engaged in a fierce battle against the Islamic State (IS) insurgency, which has been gaining strength in the northern part of the country. The main actors involved in this conflict are the Mozambican government and the IS militants. This insurgency poses a significant threat to the stability and security of the region, as it has resulted in a humanitarian crisis with thousands of people displaced and a rising death toll. The threat level assessment for this conflict is high, as the IS insurgency has shown resilience and the potential to further escalate.

    Myanmar 2022

    Total Deaths2740
    Battle Related Deaths2038
    Targeted Civilian Deaths702
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Myanmar (Burma) vs KNU
    Government of Myanmar (Burma) vs KIO
    Government of Myanmar (Burma) vs KNPP
    Government of Myanmar (Burma) vs ULA
    Government of Myanmar (Burma) vs PSLF
    Government of Myanmar (Burma) vs NUG

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Government of Myanmar (Burma), NUG

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Myanmar, also known as Burma, is currently facing several internal conflicts with various ethnic armed groups. The government of Myanmar is engaged in conflicts with the Karen National Union (KNU), Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), United League of Arakan (ULA), and the People’s Solidarity and Development Party (PSLF). Additionally, there is a power struggle between the government and the National Unity Government (NUG), which is an alternative administration formed by ousted lawmakers. These conflicts have resulted in violence and displacement of communities, particularly in Karen, Kachin, Karenni, and Arakan regions.

    Externally, Myanmar shares a border with Bangladesh, which has been affected by the influx of Rohingya refugees fleeing violence and persecution in Myanmar. This has strained relations between the two countries. The conflicts in Myanmar have implications for the region as they contribute to instability, displacement, and human rights abuses. The involvement of various armed groups and the power struggle between the government and the NUG further complicate the situation.

    The threat level assessment for Myanmar’s geopolitical situation is high. The conflicts have persisted for many years, and there is a risk of escalation and further violence. The involvement of multiple armed groups and the complex dynamics between the government and the NUG make it challenging to achieve a peaceful resolution. The situation also has regional implications, including the displacement of refugees and potential spillover of violence into neighboring countries.

    Namibia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Namibia is a politically stable country in southern Africa with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces. Internally, Namibia has experienced some social and economic challenges, including income inequality and high unemployment rates. However, the country has managed to maintain a relatively peaceful political environment since gaining independence from South Africa in 1990.

    Externally, Namibia has had disputes with neighboring countries over territorial boundaries, particularly with Angola and Botswana. These conflicts have mainly revolved around the demarcation of borders and access to natural resources, such as fisheries and diamonds. However, these disputes have been largely managed through diplomatic channels and have not escalated into armed conflicts.

    The main actors involved in these conflicts are the Namibian government, neighboring countries, and regional organizations such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU). These organizations have played a crucial role in mediating disputes and promoting regional stability.

    Overall, the threat level assessment for Namibia is unlikely to escalate. The country has a strong commitment to peaceful resolution of conflicts and has demonstrated a willingness to engage in diplomatic negotiations. Additionally, Namibia benefits from its membership in regional organizations that promote cooperation and stability in southern Africa. However, ongoing efforts are needed to address internal challenges and ensure inclusive economic growth to prevent potential social unrest in the future.

    Nepal 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Nepal is a landlocked country in South Asia, bordered by China to the north and India to the south, east, and west. The key internal conflict in Nepal has been the struggle between the government and various Maoist insurgent groups seeking to establish a communist state. This conflict lasted for a decade until a peace agreement was reached in 2006. The main external conflict for Nepal has been its relationship with India, particularly regarding trade and border disputes. The main actors involved in these conflicts are the Nepalese government, Maoist groups, and the Indian government. The implications for the region include potential instability and spillover effects, as well as the impact on Nepal’s economic development. The threat level assessment for Nepal is currently unlikely to escalate, but tensions with India and internal political dynamics should be closely monitored.

    Netherlands 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The Netherlands is a stable country with no significant internal conflicts. However, it has been involved in various external conflicts as part of international peacekeeping missions. The country has actively participated in NATO operations, including the war in Afghanistan and the ongoing mission in Iraq against ISIS. The Netherlands has also been involved in peacekeeping efforts in countries like Mali and South Sudan. Overall, the threat level assessment for the Netherlands is unlikely to escalate, as it has a strong focus on diplomacy and international cooperation.

    New Zealand 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    New Zealand is a stable and peaceful country with no significant internal or external conflicts. Internally, the country has a well-functioning democratic system and a strong rule of law, ensuring political stability and social harmony. Externally, New Zealand maintains friendly relations with its neighboring countries and has a reputation for being a neutral and non-aggressive actor in international affairs. The main actors involved in New Zealand’s geopolitical situation are its government, which prioritizes diplomacy and peaceful cooperation, and its citizens, who value peace and stability. The threat level assessment for New Zealand is generally considered to be unlikely to escalate, as the country has a strong commitment to peaceful resolution of conflicts and has not been involved in any major disputes or conflicts in recent history.

    Nicaragua 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Nicaragua is currently facing internal conflicts between the government led by President Daniel Ortega and opposition groups. The government has been accused of suppressing dissent, violating human rights, and undermining democratic institutions, leading to widespread protests and civil unrest. The main actors involved in the internal conflict are the government, opposition groups, and civil society organizations. Externally, Nicaragua has strained relations with the United States due to concerns over human rights abuses and democratic backsliding. The implications for the region include potential refugee flows, economic instability, and a potential increase in authoritarianism. The threat level assessment for Nicaragua is high, as the internal conflicts have the potential to escalate and further destabilize the country and the region.

    Niger 2022

    Total Deaths7643
    Battle Related Deaths2038
    Targeted Civilian Deaths4664
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths941

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Niger vs IS
    Government of Niger vs JNIM

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS, JNIM, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, Ambazonia insurgents, Government of Nigeria

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    IS vs Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad
    Fulani vs Tiv
    Click for more

    Conflict Summary:

    Niger is facing internal and external conflicts that have significant implications for the region. Internally, the government of Niger is engaged in a battle against the Islamic State (IS) and Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JNIM). These extremist groups pose a threat to the stability and security of the country. Additionally, there are ethnic and communal clashes between groups such as the Fulani and Tiv, Igbo and Fulani, and Bassa Kwomu and Egbura Mozum.

    Externally, Niger is affected by the activities of Ambazonia insurgents in neighboring Cameroon and the ongoing conflict between the Nigerian government and Boko Haram. These external conflicts further exacerbate the security challenges faced by Niger.

    The main actors involved in these conflicts are the government of Niger, IS, JNIM, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, Ambazonia insurgents, and the government of Nigeria. The presence of these extremist groups and the ethnic tensions pose a significant threat to the stability of Niger and the wider region.

    The threat level assessment for Niger is high. The presence of extremist groups, ethnic clashes, and the spill-over effects from neighboring conflicts create a volatile environment. There is a risk of further escalation and potential for the conflicts to spread across borders, impacting regional stability.

    Nigeria 2022

    Total Deaths6657
    Battle Related Deaths1550
    Targeted Civilian Deaths4166
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths941

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Nigeria vs Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad
    Government of Nigeria vs IPOB
    Government of Nigeria vs IS

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, Ambazonia insurgents, Government of Nigeria

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    IS vs Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad
    Fulani vs Tiv
    Click for more

    Conflict Summary:

    Nigeria is currently facing several internal conflicts, including the government’s fight against Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (also known as Boko Haram) and the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). Additionally, the government is also combating the presence of the Islamic State (IS) in the country. These conflicts have resulted in significant violence and instability, particularly in the Biafra region and areas affected by Boko Haram. The main actors involved in these conflicts are the Nigerian government, Boko Haram, IPOB, and IS. The implications for the region are concerning, as the violence and instability in Nigeria can spill over into neighboring countries and contribute to the spread of extremism. The threat level assessment for Nigeria is high, as the conflicts have the potential to escalate and further destabilize the region.

    North Korea 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    North Korea is a highly isolated country with a complex geopolitical situation. Internally, the key conflict revolves around the authoritarian regime’s control over its population and the suppression of dissent. The main actor in this conflict is the ruling Kim dynasty, which tightly controls all aspects of the country. Externally, North Korea’s main conflict is with the international community, particularly the United States and its allies, due to its pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. This has led to economic sanctions and diplomatic tensions. The implications for the region are significant, as any escalation in tensions could potentially lead to military conflict and destabilize the entire Northeast Asian region. The threat level assessment is high, as North Korea’s unpredictable behavior and nuclear capabilities pose a serious risk to regional stability.

    North Macedonia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    North Macedonia, formerly known as Macedonia, has faced several internal and external conflicts that have shaped its geopolitical situation. Internally, the country has experienced tensions between its ethnic Albanian minority and the majority Macedonian population, leading to sporadic outbreaks of violence. Externally, North Macedonia has been involved in a long-standing dispute with Greece over its name, which was resolved in 2019 with the signing of the Prespa Agreement. The main actors involved in these conflicts include the Macedonian government, ethnic Albanian political parties, Greece, and international mediators. The resolution of the name dispute has had positive implications for the region, as it has opened up opportunities for North Macedonia’s integration into NATO and the European Union. However, the potential for ethnic tensions and political instability remains, posing a moderate threat level assessment for the country.

    Norway 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Norway is known for its stable geopolitical situation, with no major internal or external conflicts. Internally, the country has a well-functioning democratic system and a strong rule of law, which has contributed to its political stability. Externally, Norway maintains friendly relations with its neighboring countries and is an active participant in international organizations. The main actors involved in Norway’s geopolitical landscape are its government, political parties, and civil society organizations. The absence of significant conflicts and the country’s commitment to diplomacy and peaceful resolution of disputes make the threat level assessment for Norway unlikely to escalate.

    Oman 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Oman is a relatively stable country in the Middle East, with a history of maintaining neutrality in regional conflicts. Internally, Oman has managed to avoid major internal conflicts due to the strong leadership of Sultan Qaboos bin Said, who ruled the country for nearly five decades until his death in 2020. However, there have been some sporadic protests and demands for political reforms from certain segments of the population.

    Externally, Oman has maintained a policy of non-alignment and has played a mediating role in regional disputes. It has been involved in facilitating negotiations between various parties, such as the United States and Iran, and has hosted talks aimed at resolving conflicts in Yemen. Oman’s strategic location along the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route for oil, also makes it an important player in regional geopolitics.

    The main actors involved in Oman’s geopolitical situation include the ruling Sultanate, various tribal groups, neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, and international powers like the United States. Oman’s ability to maintain stability and act as a mediator has implications for the region, as it helps prevent further escalation of conflicts and promotes diplomatic solutions.

    Overall, the threat level assessment for Oman is unlikely to escalate. The country has a history of peaceful coexistence and has managed to avoid major internal and external conflicts. However, the geopolitical situation in the region is complex, and any sudden developments or changes in the balance of power could potentially impact Oman’s stability.

    Pakistan 2022

    Total Deaths4460
    Battle Related Deaths677
    Targeted Civilian Deaths3783
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Pakistan vs TTP
    Government of Pakistan vs IS
    Government of Pakistan vs BRAS

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Pakistan is currently facing several internal and external conflicts that have significant implications for the region. Internally, the government of Pakistan is engaged in conflicts with various militant groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State (IS), and Balochistan Liberation Army (BRAS). These conflicts have resulted in violence and instability within the country. Externally, Pakistan shares a complex relationship with Afghanistan, with both countries accusing each other of supporting militant groups on their respective territories. The main actors involved in these conflicts are the government of Pakistan, militant groups, and neighboring Afghanistan. The implications for the region include the potential for cross-border attacks, increased terrorism, and strained diplomatic relations. The threat level assessment for this situation is high, as the conflicts have the potential to escalate and further destabilize the region.

    Panama 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Panama is a country located in Central America with a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, the country faces challenges related to corruption and income inequality, which have led to occasional protests and social unrest. Externally, Panama maintains positive relations with its neighboring countries and has been successful in promoting regional cooperation and economic integration.

    The main actors involved in Panama’s geopolitical landscape include the government, political parties, civil society organizations, and international actors such as the United States and China. The government plays a crucial role in addressing internal challenges and maintaining stability, while political parties and civil society organizations contribute to shaping the country’s political landscape.

    The implications for the region are generally positive, as Panama serves as a key hub for international trade and transportation due to the Panama Canal. Its stable political environment and commitment to regional cooperation contribute to economic growth and development in the region. However, the country’s reliance on the canal also makes it vulnerable to potential disruptions or conflicts related to global trade.

    Overall, the threat level assessment for Panama is unlikely to escalate. While the country faces internal challenges, it has a history of peaceful transitions of power and has managed to maintain stability. Additionally, its commitment to regional cooperation and economic integration reduces the likelihood of external conflicts. However, the potential for disruptions in global trade or natural disasters could pose some risks to the country’s stability.

    Papua New Guinea 2022

    Total Deaths96
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths96

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    Aiyala vs Nomali
    Kuboma vs Kulumata

    Conflict Summary:

    Papua New Guinea is currently facing internal conflicts between different ethnic groups, such as the Aiyala and Nomali, as well as the Kuboma and Kulumata. These conflicts have resulted in violence and tensions within the country. Additionally, there are territorial disputes between Papua New Guinea and neighboring countries, particularly regarding maritime boundaries. The main actors involved in these conflicts are the ethnic groups themselves, as well as the government and military forces. The implications for the region include potential destabilization, hindered economic development, and strained diplomatic relations. The threat level assessment for these conflicts is likely, as they have the potential to escalate and further impact the stability of Papua New Guinea and its neighboring countries.

    Paraguay 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Paraguay is a landlocked country in South America with a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, the country has faced challenges related to corruption, poverty, and inequality. However, there are no major internal conflicts or actors involved that pose a significant threat to the country’s stability.

    Externally, Paraguay has had historical territorial disputes with its neighbors, particularly Argentina and Bolivia, over border areas. These disputes have been largely resolved through diplomatic negotiations and international arbitration, resulting in peaceful resolutions. Currently, Paraguay maintains peaceful relations with its neighboring countries and actively participates in regional organizations such as Mercosur.

    Overall, the geopolitical situation in Paraguay is unlikely to escalate into major conflicts or pose a significant threat to the region. The country’s focus on diplomacy and regional cooperation has contributed to its stability and peaceful relations with neighboring nations.

    Peru 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Peru is currently facing several internal conflicts, including social unrest and political instability. The country has experienced protests and demonstrations over issues such as corruption, inequality, and inadequate public services. The main actors involved in these conflicts are the Peruvian government, opposition groups, and civil society organizations. Externally, Peru has territorial disputes with neighboring countries, particularly with Chile over maritime boundaries. These disputes have implications for the region as they can strain diplomatic relations and potentially escalate tensions. The threat level assessment for Peru’s geopolitical situation is likely, as the internal conflicts and territorial disputes have the potential to escalate if not effectively addressed.

    Philippines 2022

    Total Deaths3976
    Battle Related Deaths193
    Targeted Civilian Deaths3783
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Philippines vs CPP
    Government of Philippines vs IS

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The Philippines is currently facing two key internal conflicts: the Government of Philippines vs CPP (Communist Party of the Philippines) and the Government of Philippines vs IS (Islamic State). The Government of Philippines has been engaged in a long-standing battle against the CPP, a communist rebel group seeking to overthrow the government. Additionally, the Philippines has been combating the presence of the Islamic State within its borders. These conflicts have significant implications for the region, as they pose threats to stability and security. The main actors involved include the Government of Philippines, the CPP, and the Islamic State. The threat level assessment for these conflicts is high, as they have the potential to escalate and further destabilize the region.

    Poland 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Poland is currently experiencing a relatively stable geopolitical situation with no major internal or external conflicts. Internally, the country has a functioning democratic system and a strong economy. Externally, Poland maintains good relations with its neighboring countries and is an active member of the European Union and NATO. The main actors involved in Poland’s geopolitical landscape are the government, opposition parties, and international organizations. The lack of significant conflicts and the country’s active participation in regional alliances suggest a low threat level assessment, with the situation unlikely to escalate into a major conflict.

    Portugal 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Portugal is currently experiencing a relatively stable geopolitical situation with no major internal or external conflicts. The country has a long history of political stability and has successfully transitioned to a democratic system. Internally, Portugal faces challenges related to economic inequality and social issues, but these are not considered major sources of conflict. Externally, Portugal maintains positive relations with its European Union partners and other international actors. Overall, the threat level assessment for Portugal is unlikely to escalate, as there are no significant conflicts or actors posing a direct threat to the country’s security.

    Qatar 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Qatar is a small country located in the Middle East, known for its vast reserves of natural gas. Internally, Qatar has maintained relative stability with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces. However, the country has faced diplomatic tensions with its neighboring Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt. These countries imposed a blockade on Qatar in 2017, accusing it of supporting terrorism and aligning with Iran. This has led to a strained relationship and ongoing regional rivalry.

    Externally, Qatar has been involved in various conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. It has supported rebel groups in Libya and Syria, which has caused friction with other regional powers. Qatar has also been accused of supporting Islamist movements, which has further strained its relations with some countries in the region. Additionally, Qatar’s close ties with Iran have been a source of concern for its Gulf neighbors.

    The implications of these conflicts and tensions are significant for the region. The blockade imposed by the GCC countries has disrupted regional cooperation and created divisions within the Gulf. It has also affected Qatar’s economy, as it relies heavily on imports from its neighboring countries. The ongoing rivalry and geopolitical tensions have the potential to escalate further, especially if there is a shift in regional power dynamics or if diplomatic efforts fail to resolve the disputes.

    In terms of threat level assessment, the situation is currently unlikely to escalate to a full-scale military conflict. However, the tensions and rivalries in the region remain high, and there is a possibility of localized clashes or proxy conflicts. The involvement of external actors, such as Iran and other regional powers, adds complexity to the situation and increases the potential for escalation. Therefore, the threat level can be considered as high, given the ongoing geopolitical dynamics and the potential for further escalation.

    Romania 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Romania is a country located in Eastern Europe, bordered by Ukraine, Moldova, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary. Internally, Romania has faced challenges related to corruption, political instability, and economic disparities between urban and rural areas. Externally, Romania has been involved in territorial disputes with Ukraine over the Black Sea region of Crimea and with Hungary over the status of ethnic Hungarians in Transylvania. The main actors involved in these conflicts are the Romanian government, Ukrainian authorities, and Hungarian minority groups. These conflicts have implications for the region as they can strain diplomatic relations and potentially lead to increased tensions. The threat level assessment for these conflicts is unlikely to escalate, as they have not reached a level of significant violence or military confrontation.

    Russia 2022

    Total Deaths55112
    Battle Related Deaths54000
    Targeted Civilian Deaths1112
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    The Russian government is engaged in a full-scale war with Ukraine, vying for territorial dominance and governmental control within the country (“Why Russia Attacked Ukraine).

    According to data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), the war has resulted in the deaths of an estimated 81,517 soldiers across both sides. This figure represents the best estimate, with a lower range of 57,717 and an upper range reaching as high as 160,778.Gaining an accurate assessment of the Russian military casualties is challenging, as both parties are hesitant to disclose the exact numbers. Nevertheless, various sources propose that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian military fatalities stands approximately at 2:1. Thus, we have calculated an estimated figure of around 54,000 Russian casualties.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Government of Russia (Soviet Union)

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The geopolitical situation in Russia is characterized by both internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country faces challenges such as political repression, human rights violations, and economic inequality. Externally, Russia is involved in conflicts with neighboring countries, particularly Ukraine. The main actors involved in the conflict are Russia and Ukraine, with the latter seeking to maintain its territorial integrity and sovereignty. The implications for the region include increased tensions, displacement of people, and potential destabilization. The threat level assessment is high, as the conflict has already escalated into a full-scale war and there is a risk of further escalation.

    Rwanda 2022

    Total Deaths61
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths61
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Government of Rwanda

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Rwanda has experienced significant internal conflicts in the past, most notably the 1994 genocide that resulted in the deaths of nearly one million people. Since then, the country has made remarkable progress in terms of stability and economic development. However, there are still some internal tensions, particularly between the ruling party and opposition groups, as well as occasional outbreaks of violence in border regions.

    Externally, Rwanda has been involved in conflicts in neighboring countries, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Rwanda has been accused of supporting rebel groups in the DRC, which has fueled regional instability. The main actors involved in these conflicts include the Rwandan government, rebel groups, and neighboring countries such as the DRC and Uganda.

    The implications for the region are significant, as the conflicts in Rwanda and its involvement in neighboring countries have the potential to destabilize the entire Great Lakes region of Africa. The presence of armed groups and the flow of refugees across borders pose security and humanitarian challenges. Additionally, tensions between Rwanda and its neighbors can strain diplomatic relations and hinder regional cooperation.

    In terms of threat level assessment, the situation in Rwanda is currently unlikely to escalate into a major conflict. The country has made significant progress in post-genocide reconciliation and has a strong government that prioritizes stability. However, the potential for sporadic violence and regional tensions remains, making it important to monitor the situation closely.

    Saint Helena 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Saint Helena is a remote island territory located in the South Atlantic Ocean. It has a stable geopolitical situation with no significant internal or external conflicts. The main actors involved in the region are the local government of Saint Helena, which exercises control over the island, and the United Kingdom, which is responsible for its defense and foreign affairs. The absence of conflicts and the peaceful nature of the region imply a low threat level assessment, as there are no indications of any potential escalation or likelihood of conflicts emerging in the foreseeable future.

    Saint Kitts and Nevis 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Saint Kitts and Nevis is a small island nation located in the Caribbean. It has a stable political environment with no significant internal or external conflicts. The main actors involved in the country’s geopolitical situation are the government and the local population. The government has been successful in maintaining peace and stability, and there are no known threats or tensions that could escalate into conflicts. Therefore, the general threat level assessment for Saint Kitts and Nevis is unlikely to escalate.

    Saint Lucia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Saint Lucia is a small island nation located in the eastern Caribbean Sea. It has a stable political environment with no significant internal conflicts. However, the country faces challenges related to drug trafficking and organized crime, which can occasionally lead to violence. The main actors involved in these issues are local criminal organizations and international drug cartels.

    Externally, Saint Lucia maintains diplomatic relations with various countries and is a member of regional organizations such as the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS). It has generally good relations with its neighbors and other nations in the region.

    The implications for the region are primarily related to the potential spillover of drug-related violence and criminal activities. While Saint Lucia itself is not a major drug-producing or transit country, its proximity to drug-producing nations in South America and its position as a popular tourist destination make it vulnerable to drug trafficking activities. This can have negative impacts on the country’s security and economy.

    In terms of threat level assessment, the likelihood of internal conflicts escalating into significant violence is low. However, the risk of drug-related violence and organized crime activities remains a concern, although it is not at a high level. The government of Saint Lucia, along with regional and international partners, continues to work towards addressing these challenges and maintaining stability in the country.

    Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is a small island nation located in the Caribbean. Internally, the country has not experienced any significant conflicts or battle-related deaths involving government forces, according to UCDP data. However, there have been occasional instances of social unrest and political tensions, primarily related to issues such as corruption and economic inequality.

    Externally, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has maintained relatively peaceful relations with its neighboring countries and the wider international community. The country is a member of various regional organizations, such as the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), which promote cooperation and stability in the region.

    The main actors involved in the geopolitical situation of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines are its government, political parties, civil society organizations, and regional partners. The government plays a central role in maintaining stability and addressing internal challenges, while regional organizations provide support and assistance when needed.

    Overall, the threat level assessment for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is unlikely to escalate. The country has a relatively stable political environment and has not been involved in any major external conflicts. However, it is important to monitor and address internal issues such as corruption and economic inequality to ensure continued stability and development in the region.

    San Marino 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    San Marino is a small landlocked country located within Italy. It has a stable political system and has not been involved in any significant internal or external conflicts. The country maintains friendly relations with its neighboring countries and has a long-standing defense agreement with Italy. San Marino’s main actors are its government and the Italian government, with whom it shares close economic and political ties. The absence of conflicts and the peaceful nature of the country’s relations suggest a low threat level assessment, with the likelihood of escalation being unlikely.

    Saudi Arabia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Saudi Arabia is a key player in the Middle East, with both internal and external conflicts shaping its geopolitical situation. Internally, the country faces challenges related to political repression and human rights abuses, as well as tensions between the ruling monarchy and various opposition groups. Externally, Saudi Arabia is involved in conflicts such as the ongoing war in Yemen, where it leads a coalition against Houthi rebels. The main actors involved in these conflicts include the Saudi government, opposition groups, regional powers like Iran, and international actors such as the United States. The implications for the region are significant, as Saudi Arabia’s actions and alliances have the potential to fuel sectarian tensions and exacerbate regional rivalries. The threat level assessment for Saudi Arabia is high, as the country’s involvement in conflicts and its regional ambitions make it susceptible to escalation and further destabilization.

    Senegal 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Senegal is a stable country in West Africa with no major internal conflicts. However, it faces some external challenges, particularly in relation to its territorial dispute with Mauritania over the Senegal River border. The main actors involved in this dispute are the governments of Senegal and Mauritania, as well as the local communities living along the river. The implications for the region include potential tensions between the two countries and the impact on the livelihoods of the communities dependent on the river. Overall, the threat level assessment for this conflict is unlikely to escalate, as both countries have shown a willingness to engage in dialogue and find peaceful solutions.

    Serbia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Serbia has faced significant geopolitical challenges, both internally and externally. Internally, the country has grappled with ethnic tensions, particularly with its Albanian minority in the province of Kosovo. This conflict led to the Kosovo War in the late 1990s, with Serbia opposing Kosovo’s independence. Externally, Serbia has had strained relations with its neighbors, particularly Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, stemming from the breakup of Yugoslavia. The main actors involved in these conflicts include Serbia, Kosovo, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the involvement of international actors such as the European Union and NATO. The implications for the region are complex, as unresolved conflicts and tensions can hinder stability and cooperation. The threat level assessment for the region is likely, as the potential for escalation and renewed conflicts remains a concern.

    Seychelles 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Seychelles is a small island nation located in the Indian Ocean with no significant internal or external conflicts. The country has a stable political system and has not experienced any major internal conflicts or violence involving government forces. Externally, Seychelles maintains friendly relations with its neighboring countries and has not been involved in any territorial disputes or military conflicts. The main actors in the region include Seychelles itself, as well as other Indian Ocean countries and international organizations. Overall, the geopolitical situation in Seychelles is relatively peaceful and stable, with a low threat level and unlikely to escalate.

    Sierra Leone 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Sierra Leone has experienced significant internal and external conflicts in its recent history. Internally, the country faced a brutal civil war from 1991 to 2002, primarily driven by rebel groups such as the Revolutionary United Front (RUF). This conflict resulted in widespread violence, human rights abuses, and the use of child soldiers. Externally, Sierra Leone has faced tensions with neighboring countries, particularly Liberia and Guinea, as they provided support to rebel groups during the civil war.

    The main actors involved in the conflicts were the Sierra Leonean government, rebel groups like the RUF, and neighboring countries. The government, with the assistance of the United Nations and other international actors, eventually managed to end the civil war and restore stability. However, the scars of the conflict still linger, and the country continues to face challenges related to post-war reconstruction, development, and reconciliation.

    The threat level assessment for Sierra Leone is currently unlikely to escalate. The civil war has ended, and the country has made significant progress in terms of peacebuilding and democratic governance. However, there are still underlying issues such as poverty, corruption, and youth unemployment that could potentially lead to social unrest if not adequately addressed. Additionally, regional dynamics and the presence of armed groups in neighboring countries could pose sporadic security challenges. Overall, while the situation remains fragile, the likelihood of a major conflict is currently low.

    Singapore 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Singapore is a small island nation in Southeast Asia that has managed to maintain a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, the country has not experienced any significant conflicts or political unrest since gaining independence in 1965. Externally, Singapore has maintained friendly relations with its neighboring countries and has actively pursued diplomatic and economic cooperation in the region.

    The main actors involved in Singapore’s geopolitical landscape are the government, led by the ruling People’s Action Party, and its neighboring countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia. Singapore has worked to establish strong diplomatic ties with these countries, focusing on economic cooperation and regional security initiatives.

    The implications for the region are largely positive, as Singapore’s stability and economic success have made it an attractive destination for foreign investment and a hub for regional trade. Its strategic location and well-developed infrastructure have also contributed to its role as a key player in regional security initiatives, such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

    In terms of threat level assessment, Singapore is considered unlikely to escalate conflicts or engage in aggressive actions. The country’s focus on diplomacy, economic cooperation, and regional security initiatives has helped maintain a peaceful and stable environment. However, it is important to note that geopolitical dynamics can change, and ongoing regional disputes or global events could potentially impact the situation in the future.

    Slovakia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Slovakia is a landlocked country in Central Europe that has maintained a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, the country has not experienced any significant conflicts or violence involving government forces. Externally, Slovakia has maintained peaceful relations with its neighboring countries and has been an active member of the European Union and NATO. The main actors involved in the region include Slovakia, its neighboring countries, and international organizations. The overall threat level assessment for Slovakia is unlikely to escalate, as the country has demonstrated a commitment to peaceful relations and cooperation with its neighbors and international partners.

    Slovenia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Slovenia is a small country located in Central Europe, bordered by Italy, Austria, Hungary, and Croatia. It gained independence from Yugoslavia in 1991, which marked the end of the Yugoslav Wars. Since then, Slovenia has maintained a stable political environment and has not been involved in any major internal or external conflicts.

    Internally, Slovenia has a well-functioning democratic system and a strong rule of law. The country has a parliamentary republic with a multi-party system. The main actors in the political landscape are various political parties that compete for power through elections.

    Externally, Slovenia is a member of the European Union and NATO, which has helped to ensure its security and stability. The country has good relations with its neighboring countries and actively participates in regional cooperation initiatives. Slovenia also plays a role in promoting stability in the Western Balkans region.

    Overall, the geopolitical situation in Slovenia is relatively calm and stable. There are no significant internal or external conflicts that pose a threat to the country or the region. The threat level assessment for Slovenia is unlikely to escalate, as the country has a strong commitment to peace and cooperation with its neighbors.

    Somalia 2022

    Total Deaths3122
    Battle Related Deaths3034
    Targeted Civilian Deaths88
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Al-Shabaab

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Somalia has been grappling with internal conflicts, primarily between the Government of Somalia and the extremist group Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab, an internationalized intrastate actor, has been engaged in a long-standing insurgency against the government, aiming to establish its own rule. The conflict has also drawn in external actors, with Ethiopia supporting the government in its fight against Al-Shabaab. The implications of this conflict are significant for the region, as it has led to instability, displacement of people, and a breeding ground for terrorism. The threat level assessment for the region is high, as the conflict has the potential to escalate and further destabilize the already fragile political and security situation in Somalia and neighboring countries.

    South Africa 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    South Africa is a country with a relatively stable geopolitical situation. Internally, it faces challenges such as high levels of inequality, unemployment, and crime. The main actors involved in these internal conflicts are the government, various political parties, and civil society organizations. Externally, South Africa has been involved in regional conflicts, particularly in its role as a mediator in neighboring countries such as Zimbabwe and Lesotho.

    The implications of these conflicts are significant for the region. Internally, the high levels of inequality and unemployment can lead to social unrest and political instability. Externally, South Africa’s involvement in regional conflicts can either contribute to stability and peace or exacerbate tensions depending on its approach and effectiveness as a mediator.

    In terms of threat level assessment, the likelihood of internal conflicts escalating into large-scale violence is relatively low. However, the persistence of social and economic challenges could continue to pose risks to stability. Externally, South Africa’s involvement in regional conflicts is more likely to be driven by diplomatic efforts rather than military interventions, indicating a lower likelihood of escalation.

    South Korea 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    South Korea is situated in a complex geopolitical landscape, primarily shaped by its tense relationship with North Korea. The main internal conflict revolves around the divided Korean Peninsula, with South Korea seeking reunification while North Korea maintains a hostile stance. The main external conflict involves the United States and its allies, including South Korea, against North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. The key actors involved are South Korea, North Korea, and the United States, with China also playing a significant role as a regional power. The implications for the region are high, as any escalation of tensions could potentially lead to military conflict and have far-reaching consequences for peace and stability in Northeast Asia. The threat level assessment is considered high due to the unpredictable nature of North Korea’s actions and the potential for miscalculation or provocation.

    South Sudan 2022

    Total Deaths763
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths95
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths668

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Government of South Sudan

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    Bor Dinka vs Murle
    Bor Dinka, Lou Nuer vs Murle
    Click for more

    Conflict Summary:

    South Sudan is currently facing several internal conflicts, with the main actors being various ethnic groups such as the Bor Dinka, Murle, Lou Nuer, and others. The conflicts primarily revolve around land disputes, cattle raiding, and political power struggles. These conflicts have resulted in significant violence and displacement of civilians. Additionally, there are external tensions with neighboring countries, particularly Sudan, over border disputes and oil resources. The implications for the region are concerning, as the ongoing conflicts in South Sudan have the potential to spill over into neighboring countries and exacerbate existing regional instability. The threat level assessment for the situation in South Sudan is high, as the conflicts have persisted for a long time and show no signs of resolution.

    Spain 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Spain is currently facing several key internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country has been grappling with the issue of Catalan separatism, with Catalonia seeking independence from Spain. This has led to political tensions and protests in the region. Externally, Spain has been dealing with the issue of illegal immigration, as it serves as a major entry point for migrants from Africa. The main actors involved in these conflicts include the Spanish government, Catalan separatist leaders, and various international organizations dealing with immigration. The implications for the region are significant, as the resolution of these conflicts could have far-reaching consequences for the stability and unity of Spain and potentially impact other separatist movements in Europe. The threat level assessment for these conflicts is currently unlikely to escalate, but the situation remains fragile and could change depending on the actions and responses of the involved parties.

    Sri Lanka 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Sri Lanka has experienced significant internal conflicts, particularly the long-standing ethnic conflict between the majority Sinhalese and the minority Tamil population. The conflict, which lasted for decades, resulted in a brutal civil war that ended in 2009 with the defeat of the Tamil Tigers. The main actors involved were the Sri Lankan government and the Tamil Tigers, with both sides committing human rights abuses. Externally, India played a significant role in the conflict, providing support to the Sri Lankan government. The implications for the region include concerns over human rights violations, displacement of people, and the potential for regional instability. The threat level assessment for Sri Lanka is currently unlikely to escalate, as the civil war has ended, but tensions and grievances still exist, requiring continued attention to prevent any resurgence of violence.

    Sudan 2022

    Total Deaths2039
    Battle Related Deaths47
    Targeted Civilian Deaths169
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths1823

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Sudan vs SLM/A

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Government of South Sudan, Government of Sudan

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    Bor Dinka vs Murle
    Bor Dinka, Lou Nuer vs Murle
    Click for more

    Conflict Summary:

    Sudan is currently facing multiple internal and external conflicts. Internally, the government of Sudan is engaged in a non-territorial intrastate conflict with the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A). This conflict has been ongoing since 2003 and has resulted in significant violence and displacement. Additionally, there are numerous ethnic and tribal conflicts within Sudan involving groups such as Bor Dinka, Murle, Lou Nuer, and others.

    Externally, Sudan has a complex relationship with its neighbor, South Sudan. The two countries have had disputes over border territories and oil resources, leading to occasional clashes between their respective governments. The involvement of external actors, such as the governments of South Sudan and Sudan, further complicates the situation.

    The implications of these conflicts are significant for the region. The violence and displacement caused by the internal conflicts have created a humanitarian crisis and strained resources in Sudan. The tensions between Sudan and South Sudan have the potential to escalate into a larger regional conflict, as both countries have support from various external actors. The threat level assessment for Sudan is high, as the conflicts have persisted for many years and show no signs of resolution, posing a continued risk to stability in the region.

    Suriname 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Suriname is a relatively stable country in South America with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces. Internally, the country has faced challenges related to political stability and corruption, with periodic tensions between different political factions. Externally, Suriname has experienced territorial disputes with neighboring Guyana over the border region, which has strained relations between the two countries. The main actors involved in these conflicts are the Surinamese government, opposition parties, and neighboring countries. Overall, the threat level assessment for Suriname is unlikely to escalate, as the country has managed to maintain relative peace and stability in recent years.

    Sweden 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Sweden is known for its long-standing tradition of neutrality and has not been involved in any major internal or external conflicts in recent history. Internally, the country has maintained a stable political environment with a strong emphasis on social welfare and democratic governance. Externally, Sweden has actively pursued a policy of non-alignment and has not engaged in any military alliances. The main actors involved in Sweden’s geopolitical situation are its government, which prioritizes diplomacy and international cooperation, and various international organizations such as the United Nations and the European Union. The threat level assessment for Sweden is generally considered to be unlikely to escalate, given its neutral stance and focus on peaceful resolution of conflicts.

    Switzerland 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Switzerland is known for its long-standing tradition of neutrality and has not been involved in any major internal or external conflicts in recent history. Internally, the country has a stable political system with a strong emphasis on consensus-building and a decentralized power structure. Externally, Switzerland maintains a policy of non-alignment and has not participated in any military alliances. The main actors involved in Switzerland’s geopolitical situation are its own government and the international community, particularly neighboring countries. Given its neutral stance and lack of significant conflicts, the threat level assessment for Switzerland is generally considered to be unlikely to escalate.

    Syria 2022

    Total Deaths5272
    Battle Related Deaths877
    Targeted Civilian Deaths3783
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths612

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Syria vs Syrian insurgents
    Government of Syria vs IS

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: IS

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    IS vs SDF
    SNA vs SDF

    Conflict Summary:

    The geopolitical situation in Syria is characterized by multiple internal and external conflicts. Internally, the Government of Syria is engaged in a conflict against Syrian insurgents and the Islamic State (IS). The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian National Army (SNA) are also involved in clashes with IS and the SDF. Externally, the conflict has been internationalized, with various actors supporting different sides. The main actors involved include the Government of Syria, Syrian insurgents, IS, SDF, and SNA. The implications for the region are significant, as the conflict has led to a humanitarian crisis, mass displacement, and the rise of extremist groups. The threat level assessment for the region is high, as the conflict has the potential to escalate further and has already had far-reaching consequences.

    Taiwan 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Taiwan is a self-governing democratic island that has been a source of tension between China and the international community. China considers Taiwan as a part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to bring it under its control. This has led to ongoing political and military tensions between the two sides. The main actors involved in this conflict are the governments of China and Taiwan, as well as the United States, which has been a key supporter of Taiwan’s security. The implications for the region are significant, as any escalation in the conflict could have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and international relations. The threat level assessment is high, as the situation remains volatile and the potential for a military confrontation between China and Taiwan cannot be ruled out.

    Tajikistan 2022

    Total Deaths152
    Battle Related Deaths152
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Tajikistan is a landlocked country in Central Asia that has faced several internal and external conflicts since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The main internal conflict has been the civil war that lasted from 1992 to 1997, primarily between the government and opposition forces. This conflict resulted in significant casualties and displacement of people. Externally, Tajikistan has faced tensions with neighboring Afghanistan due to the spillover of violence and the flow of drugs and weapons across the border.

    The main actors involved in the internal conflict were the government led by President Emomali Rahmon and the United Tajik Opposition (UTO), which consisted of various opposition groups. The conflict had implications for the region as it destabilized Tajikistan and had the potential to spread to neighboring countries. The involvement of external actors, such as Russia and Iran, further complicated the situation.

    Currently, Tajikistan faces a relatively stable internal situation, with the government maintaining control. However, the threat of terrorism and extremism remains a concern, particularly due to the presence of militant groups in neighboring Afghanistan. The flow of drugs and weapons across the border also poses a security challenge. While the likelihood of a large-scale conflict is low, the threat level assessment for Tajikistan remains moderate due to the potential for localized violence and instability.

    Tanzania 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Tanzania is currently experiencing a relatively stable geopolitical situation with no major internal or external conflicts. The country has a non-territorial dispute, meaning it does not have any ongoing territorial disputes with neighboring countries. The main actors involved in Tanzania’s geopolitical landscape are the government, political parties, and various ethnic groups. The lack of significant conflicts and disputes in Tanzania implies a lower threat level, as the country has been able to maintain internal stability and peaceful relations with its neighbors. It is unlikely that the geopolitical situation in Tanzania will escalate into a major conflict in the near future.

    Thailand 2022

    Total Deaths30
    Battle Related Deaths30
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Thailand vs Patani insurgents

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Thailand has been grappling with an internal conflict between the government and Patani insurgents since 2062. The Patani insurgents, representing the ethnic Malay Muslim population in the southern region of Patani, have been seeking greater autonomy or independence from the Thai government. This intrastate conflict has resulted in frequent acts of violence, including bombings and shootings, causing significant casualties on both sides.

    The main actors involved in this conflict are the Government of Thailand and the Patani insurgents. The Thai government has been attempting to maintain control over the region and suppress the insurgency, while the Patani insurgents have been fighting for their political and cultural rights. The conflict has also attracted the attention of international human rights organizations, who have raised concerns about alleged human rights abuses by the Thai government.

    The implications of this conflict for the region are significant. The ongoing violence and instability in the southern region of Thailand have hindered economic development and tourism in the area. Moreover, the conflict has the potential to spill over into neighboring countries with significant Malay Muslim populations, such as Malaysia and Indonesia, potentially exacerbating regional tensions.

    The threat level assessment for this conflict is high. Despite occasional attempts at peace talks, the conflict has persisted for several decades with no clear resolution in sight. The continued violence and grievances of the Patani insurgents suggest that the conflict is likely to escalate further unless a comprehensive and inclusive solution is found.

    Timor-Leste 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Timor-Leste, also known as East Timor, has experienced significant geopolitical challenges since gaining independence from Indonesia in 2002. Internally, the country has faced political instability and occasional outbreaks of violence, often stemming from tensions between different factions within the government and security forces. The main actors involved in these conflicts have been political parties, rival factions within the military and police, and occasionally, disaffected youth groups. Externally, Timor-Leste has had to navigate its relationship with Indonesia, which has at times been strained due to historical grievances and border disputes. Additionally, the country has sought to balance its ties with regional powers such as Australia and China, which have economic and strategic interests in the region. Overall, while the threat level for Timor-Leste escalating into a major conflict is currently low, the country’s internal and external challenges require ongoing attention to ensure stability and development.

    Togo 2022

    Total Deaths532
    Battle Related Deaths34
    Targeted Civilian Deaths498
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Togo vs JNIM

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: JNIM

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Togo is currently facing an internal conflict between the government and the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an extremist group operating in the region. The JNIM seeks to establish an Islamic state and has carried out attacks against security forces and civilians. This conflict poses a significant threat to the stability and security of Togo, as well as the wider region.

    The main actors involved in this conflict are the government of Togo and the JNIM. The government is striving to maintain control and stability within the country, while the JNIM aims to undermine the government and establish its own rule. The JNIM has links to other extremist groups in the Sahel region, such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which further complicates the situation.

    The implications of this conflict for the region are concerning. Togo shares borders with Ghana, Benin, and Burkina Faso, all of which have experienced their own security challenges. The presence of the JNIM in Togo could potentially exacerbate existing conflicts in neighboring countries and contribute to the spread of extremism in the region.

    The threat level assessment for this conflict is likely to escalate. The JNIM has demonstrated its ability to carry out attacks and has a clear agenda of destabilizing the government. The government’s response to the group’s activities will likely determine the trajectory of the conflict. If not effectively addressed, the conflict could escalate and have far-reaching consequences for Togo and the wider region.

    Trinidad and Tobago 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Trinidad and Tobago is a country located in the Caribbean region, facing several internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country grapples with high crime rates, including drug trafficking and gang violence, which pose significant challenges to its stability and security. Externally, Trinidad and Tobago faces the threat of transnational organized crime, particularly drug trafficking, due to its strategic location as a transit point between South America and North America. The main actors involved in these conflicts include local criminal organizations, international drug cartels, and law enforcement agencies. The implications for the region are concerning, as the country’s internal conflicts can spill over into neighboring countries, exacerbating regional security challenges. The threat level assessment for Trinidad and Tobago is high, as the ongoing conflicts and criminal activities have the potential to escalate and further destabilize the country and the wider Caribbean region.

    Tunisia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Tunisia is currently facing several internal and external conflicts that have significant implications for the region. Internally, the country has been grappling with political instability and economic challenges since the 2011 revolution. This has led to social unrest, protests, and a rise in terrorism, particularly from extremist groups such as ISIS. Externally, Tunisia is dealing with the ongoing conflict in neighboring Libya, which has resulted in the spillover of violence and the influx of refugees. The main actors involved in these conflicts include the Tunisian government, various political parties, extremist groups, and regional powers such as Egypt and Algeria. The threat level assessment for Tunisia is high, as the country continues to face internal and external challenges that could potentially escalate and further destabilize the region.

    Turkey 2022

    Total Deaths575
    Battle Related Deaths575
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Turkey vs PKK

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Turkey is currently facing a complex geopolitical situation with both internal and external conflicts. Internally, the main conflict revolves around the Government of Turkey’s ongoing battle against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish separatist group seeking autonomy. This conflict has resulted in significant violence and casualties on both sides. Externally, Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian civil war has further complicated the situation, as it has led to clashes with Kurdish forces in northern Syria.

    The main actors involved in the internal conflict are the Government of Turkey and the PKK. The Turkish government has been conducting military operations and implementing strict security measures to combat the PKK’s insurgency. On the external front, Turkey has been engaged in clashes with Kurdish forces in Syria, particularly the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey considers an extension of the PKK.

    The implications of these conflicts are significant for the region. The internal conflict with the PKK has led to a deterioration of security and stability within Turkey, with frequent terrorist attacks and human rights concerns. The conflict also has implications for the Kurdish population in the region, as their aspirations for autonomy remain unaddressed. Externally, Turkey’s involvement in Syria has strained its relations with other regional actors, such as the United States and Russia, and has further complicated the already complex dynamics of the Syrian civil war.

    The threat level assessment for this situation is high. The conflict between the Government of Turkey and the PKK has been ongoing for decades and shows no signs of resolution. The involvement of external actors in the region, such as the United States and Russia, adds another layer of complexity and potential escalation. The risk of further violence, both internally and externally, remains significant, making it likely that the situation could escalate.

    Turkmenistan 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Turkmenistan, a Central Asian country, has maintained a relatively stable geopolitical situation with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces. Internally, the country is governed by President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, who has been in power since 2006. The main internal conflict revolves around the lack of political freedoms and human rights, with the government tightly controlling the media and suppressing dissent. Externally, Turkmenistan faces challenges related to its energy resources, as it is heavily dependent on gas exports, particularly to Russia and China.

    The main actors involved in Turkmenistan’s geopolitical landscape are Russia, China, and the United States. Russia has historically been a significant player due to its economic and political influence in the region. China has also become increasingly involved, particularly through its energy cooperation and infrastructure projects. The United States has shown interest in Turkmenistan’s energy resources but has limited influence compared to Russia and China.

    The implications for the region are primarily economic and energy-related. Turkmenistan’s vast gas reserves make it an important player in the regional energy market, and any disruptions in its gas exports could have implications for neighboring countries. Additionally, the lack of political freedoms and human rights concerns within Turkmenistan could potentially lead to social unrest or discontent among the population.

    Overall, the threat level assessment for Turkmenistan is unlikely to escalate. The country’s stable internal situation and its focus on maintaining good relations with its neighbors contribute to a relatively peaceful environment. However, the lack of political freedoms and human rights concerns could pose long-term challenges if not addressed.

    Uganda 2022

    Total Deaths25
    Battle Related Deaths25
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Uganda vs IS

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Uganda is currently facing an internal conflict between the Government of Uganda and the Islamic State (IS). The main actor in this conflict is the Government of Uganda, which is actively working to counter the influence and activities of IS within its borders. The conflict has implications for the region as it poses a threat to stability and security, potentially leading to increased radicalization and terrorist activities. The threat level assessment for this conflict is likely, as the Government of Uganda is actively engaged in countering the IS presence, but the situation could escalate if not effectively addressed.

    Ukraine 2022

    Total Deaths29112
    Battle Related Deaths28000
    Targeted Civilian Deaths1112
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    The Ukrainian government is actively engaged in a full-scale war on its own soil against Russian forces, defending its territorial integrity and sovereignty within the country.(“Why Russia Attacked Ukraine)

    Data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) indicates that more than 81,517 soldiers from both sides lost their lives in 2022 alone. This figure represents the best estimate, with a lower range of 57,717 and an upper range reaching as high as 160,778. Gaining an accurate assessment of the Russian military casualties is challenging, as both parties are hesitant to disclose the exact numbers. Nevertheless, various sources propose that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian military fatalities stands approximately at 2:1. Thus, we have calculated an estimated figure of around 28,000 Ukrainian casualties.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: Government of Russia (Soviet Union)

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Amid an atmosphere of heightened tension, military escalations, and diplomatic threats, Russia launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Russian battle groups positioned around Ukraine breached the border with the apparent objective to seize Kyiv, topple the government, and occupy Ukraine in its entirety. Despite being militarily outmatched, Ukraine successfully stalled the Russian advances in the ensuing days.In the persistently violent and ongoing war that unfolded — one projected to continue well into the foreseeable future — a total of 81,717 soldiers, including approximately 28,000 Ukrainians, and 1,112 Ukrainian civilians tragically lost their lives in 2022 alone.

    Origins of the Conflict

    Conflict Timeline

    A former Soviet republic, Ukraine declared its independence in 1991. After a lengthy period of relative peace, armed conflict ignited within the nation in 2014 when the government sought to suppress an anti-government protest movement. This protest movement, called The Maiden Revolution eventually overthrew the pro-Russian government, triggering a violent response from Russia, which covertly occupied Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and began supporting an emerging separatist insurrection in eastern Ukraine.

    Separatist violence in the country’s Donbass region erupted in 2014, primarily instigated by the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR). The intensity of the violence peaked in its inaugural year before significantly subsiding and stabilizing at a relatively low level, up until the Russian invasion in 2022.

    Threat Level

    The repercussions of this conflict for the region are substantial. The ongoing violence has triggered a humanitarian crisis, mass displacement, and economic instability in Ukraine. The conflict has also strained relations between Russia and Western countries, leading to a broader geopolitical standoff. The situation raises concerns about the potential for further territorial disputes and the erosion of Ukraine’s sovereignty.

    The threat level assessment for this situation is high. This situation holds broader implications for regional stability, as it has exacerbated tensions between Russia and Western countries, leading to heightened geopolitical strife.

    United Arab Emirates 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a stable country in the Middle East with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces, according to UCDP data. Internally, the UAE has maintained a relatively peaceful environment, with limited internal conflicts. Externally, the UAE has been involved in the Yemeni Civil War, supporting the internationally recognized government against Houthi rebels. The main actors in this conflict include the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, with implications for regional stability and the humanitarian situation in Yemen. Overall, the threat level assessment for the UAE is unlikely to escalate, given its stable internal situation and its focus on regional security and diplomacy.

    United Kingdom 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    The United Kingdom is currently facing internal conflicts related to Brexit, as the country voted to leave the European Union in 2016. This decision has caused divisions within the UK, with Scotland and Northern Ireland expressing desires to remain in the EU. The main actors involved in this conflict are the UK government, pro-Brexit supporters, and those advocating for remaining in the EU. Externally, the UK is involved in tensions with Russia, particularly due to the poisoning of a former Russian spy on British soil. These conflicts have implications for the region, as they could potentially lead to the breakup of the UK or strained relations with the EU. The threat level assessment for these conflicts is likely, as they have already caused significant political and social turmoil within the country.

    United States 2022

    Total Deaths4
    Battle Related Deaths3
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths1

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to UCDP data, there are no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces, while the US Government reports 3 deaths related to Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq (source). This discrepancy arises because the UCDP reports deaths in relation to the location of the conflict, not the nationality of those killed. It’s crucial for users of our World Conflict Map to understand this distinction and cross-reference with other reliable sources when necessary.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    Jalisco Cartel New Generation vs Sinaloa Cartel

    According to UCDP data, there was one recorded death on American soil in San Diego due to cartel fighting. Although the death toll related to this Internationalized Intrastate Conflict may seem negligible, the momentum behind it is tremendous. Since 1981, the United States government has been leading a global campaign, “The War On Drugs,” which focuses on drug prohibition, military aid, and military intervention, all aimed at reducing the illegal drug trade in the United States. This initiative includes a set of drug policies designed to discourage the production, distribution, and consumption of psychoactive drugs that participating governments and the United Nations have declared illegal. For more information, please refer to the documentary America’s Longest War.

    Conflict Summary:

    The geopolitical situation in the United States is characterized by both internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country faces ongoing challenges related to racial tensions, political polarization, and socioeconomic disparities. The rise of extremist groups, such as white supremacists and militias, poses a significant threat to domestic security. Externally, the United States is engaged in various conflicts and rivalries, particularly with China and Russia, which have implications for global power dynamics and regional stability.

    Key actors involved in the internal conflicts include political parties, social movements, law enforcement agencies, and extremist groups. The polarization between Democrats and Republicans has intensified in recent years, leading to political gridlock and a lack of consensus on key issues. Racial tensions, highlighted by incidents of police brutality and systemic racism, have sparked widespread protests and calls for social justice.

    Externally, the United States is engaged in a strategic competition with China, particularly in areas such as trade, technology, and influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The relationship with Russia is marked by tensions over issues like Ukraine, cyber warfare, and interference in domestic affairs. The United States also plays a significant role in the Middle East, where it has been involved in conflicts such as the war in Afghanistan and the fight against ISIS.

    The implications of these conflicts are far-reaching. Domestically, they threaten social cohesion, democratic institutions, and the overall stability of the country. Externally, they shape global power dynamics and have the potential to escalate into military confrontations or economic conflicts. As the world’s largest economic and military power, The United States’ actions and policies have a significant impact on the region and the world at large.

    In terms of threat level assessment, the situation in the United States is currently high. The country faces multiple internal challenges that have the potential to escalate into violence or further polarization. Externally, the rivalry with China and Russia poses risks to global stability. However, it is important to note that the situation is dynamic and subject to change based on various factors such as political developments, economic conditions, and international relations.

    Uruguay 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Uruguay is a relatively stable country in South America with no significant internal or external conflicts. Internally, the country has a long history of political stability and democratic governance. Externally, Uruguay maintains peaceful relations with its neighboring countries and has actively participated in regional organizations such as Mercosur. The main actors involved in the country’s geopolitical situation are the government, political parties, and civil society organizations. Overall, the threat level assessment for Uruguay is unlikely to escalate, as there are no major conflicts or tensions that pose a significant risk to the country’s stability.

    Uzbekistan 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Uzbekistan is a landlocked country in Central Asia that has experienced relative stability since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Internally, the country has faced challenges related to political repression, limited civil liberties, and human rights abuses under the authoritarian rule of President Islam Karimov until his death in 2016. The main external conflict Uzbekistan has faced is its relationship with neighboring Afghanistan, particularly concerning the threat of terrorism and drug trafficking. The main actors involved in this dynamic are the Uzbek government, Afghan Taliban, and various extremist groups. The implications for the region include the potential for increased instability, cross-border violence, and the spread of radical ideologies. The general threat level assessment for Uzbekistan is likely, given the ongoing security concerns in the region.

    Venezuela 2022

    Total Deaths38
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths38

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    FARC – Mordisco vs ELN

    Conflict Summary:

    Venezuela is currently facing a complex geopolitical situation with both internal and external conflicts. Internally, the country is experiencing a power struggle between President Nicolás Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who declared himself interim president in 2019. This has led to political instability and a humanitarian crisis, with widespread protests and economic collapse.

    Externally, Venezuela is involved in conflicts with various armed groups. The main actors are the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN), both of which have been using Venezuelan territory as a base for their operations. These groups are engaged in drug trafficking, illegal mining, and other criminal activities, further exacerbating the country’s instability.

    The implications of these conflicts for the region are significant. The presence of armed groups in Venezuela poses a threat to neighboring countries, as it can lead to increased violence and insecurity. Additionally, the political and economic crisis in Venezuela has resulted in a massive influx of refugees into neighboring countries, straining their resources and creating social tensions.

    The threat level assessment for Venezuela is high. The internal power struggle, involvement of armed groups, and the humanitarian crisis all contribute to a volatile situation. The potential for escalation and further destabilization in the region is a cause for concern.

    Vietnam 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Vietnam has experienced significant geopolitical shifts in recent history. Internally, the country has faced conflicts such as the Vietnam War, which ended in 1975 with the reunification of North and South Vietnam under communist rule. Externally, Vietnam has had territorial disputes with neighboring countries, particularly over the South China Sea. The main actors involved in these conflicts include Vietnam, China, and other Southeast Asian nations. The implications for the region include potential tensions and competition for resources in the South China Sea. The threat level assessment for Vietnam’s conflicts is generally considered to be unlikely to escalate, although there is a possibility of occasional flare-ups.

    Western Sahara 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians: None

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Western Sahara is a disputed territory located in North Africa, primarily between Morocco and the Polisario Front, a Sahrawi nationalist movement seeking independence. The main internal conflict revolves around the sovereignty of the region, with Morocco claiming it as part of its territory and the Polisario Front demanding self-determination. This has led to sporadic clashes and tensions between the two sides.

    Externally, the conflict has regional implications, as neighboring countries such as Algeria and Mauritania have been involved in supporting the Polisario Front or maintaining relations with Morocco. The United Nations has been actively involved in mediating the dispute and has supported a referendum for self-determination, which has yet to be implemented.

    The geopolitical situation in Western Sahara remains complex and unresolved. The lack of progress in finding a lasting solution to the conflict increases the risk of escalation, especially if either side resorts to military action. The involvement of regional actors and the potential for resource competition further complicates the situation. Therefore, the threat level assessment for Western Sahara is considered high, as the conflict has the potential to escalate and impact the stability of the region.

    Yemen 2022

    Total Deaths3158
    Battle Related Deaths2899
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths259

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    Government of Yemen (North Yemen) vs Forces of the Presidential Leadership Council

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    AQAP vs Forces of the Presidential Leadership Council
    Giants Brigade, STC vs Islah

    Conflict Summary:

    Yemen is currently facing a complex geopolitical situation with multiple internal and external conflicts. Internally, the main conflict is between the Government of Yemen (North Yemen) and the Forces of the Presidential Leadership Council. This conflict has further escalated with the involvement of various actors such as AQAP, Giants Brigade, and STC, who are also engaged in separate clashes with each other. Externally, the United Arab Emirates has been involved in supporting the Government of Yemen.

    The implications of these conflicts are significant for the region. The ongoing violence has resulted in a humanitarian crisis, with millions of Yemenis in need of assistance. The presence of AQAP poses a threat not only to Yemen but also to regional security, as the group has carried out attacks in neighboring countries. The involvement of external actors further complicates the situation and increases the risk of regional escalation.

    The threat level assessment for Yemen is high. The multiple conflicts, involvement of extremist groups, and external interventions create a volatile environment with the potential for further escalation. The situation requires urgent attention and diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful resolution and address the humanitarian crisis.

    Zambia 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Zambia has maintained a relatively stable geopolitical situation both internally and externally. Internally, the country has experienced minimal conflict, with no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces according to UCDP data. However, there have been occasional tensions related to political rivalries and ethnic divisions, although these have not escalated into major conflicts. Externally, Zambia has maintained peaceful relations with its neighboring countries and has actively participated in regional organizations such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Overall, the geopolitical situation in Zambia is considered unlikely to escalate, with a low threat level assessment.

    Zimbabwe 2022

    Total Deaths0
    Battle Related Deaths0
    Targeted Civilian Deaths0
    Non-Govt Conflict Deaths0

    Warring Parties Involving the Government:

    According to the UCDP data, there were no reported battle-related deaths involving government forces.

    Combatants Targeting Civilians:

    List of conflicts that are “outside” state control:

    None

    Conflict Summary:

    Zimbabwe has experienced significant political and economic challenges in recent years. Internally, the country has faced political instability and human rights concerns, particularly surrounding elections and the suppression of dissent. The main actors involved in these conflicts include the ruling ZANU-PF party, led by President Emmerson Mnangagwa, and opposition parties such as the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Externally, Zimbabwe has faced strained relations with Western countries due to concerns over governance and human rights issues. The implications for the region include potential refugee flows and economic instability, as Zimbabwe’s economic struggles have had a spillover effect on neighboring countries. The threat level assessment for Zimbabwe is currently unlikely to escalate, but the situation remains fragile and could change depending on political developments.